I think chances are high (tho other scenarios have high probabilities too!) Dems take back power next year regardless of what they do in a way that isn’t nearly as embarassing as 2022 for the GOP, and take all the wrong lessons from that, and it continues to deepen the disaster in this nation
And that's the best case scenario, too
>Implying we'll have an election next year >Implying any election we do have will be fair and trustworthy, and not compromised by fascists in any way
Which is why 2026 elections won't happen
This is my exact fear. They will win and then do nothing we need.
Trump dies before then. Liberals consider the problem solved and nobody bothers to show up.
And that’s the best-case scenario.
Gotta chuck current leadership on the bonfire and move on
Dems have always taken more seriously than dorks like you. Do you wince looking at your cutsey Maga wedding photos?
There is no chance the DNC gets into power now, Trump and his buddies are already gaming the system, they own the show and will run it the way they envision. It will get worse soon, the Reichstag will burn at some point in the near future just wait for it.
Yeah it's going to take a long while to beat the cowards out of this party and it's going to cost millions of lives in the process. May every establishment Democrat that stood by and watched burn in hell.
you guys can’t even figure out you’re still helping repubs. Maybe you want to cool it on wishing divine judgment on those “standing by” while repubs speedrun 30s Germany
THIS ☝🏻
Assuming dems are allowed near power again, which is far from certain, I think it's a near certainty the dem leadership will ONLY take steps that further the crisis. They've shown they're not capable of anything beyond personal enrichement & assisting their openly fascist allies in the GOP.
Because the dems aren't an opposition party in any meaningful sense. They're set dressing of an opposition party and exactly as lethal to the GOP's plans as a foam prop sword. And like said sword they're a tool in the hands of their masters being used to keep the facade of democracy going.
I would add, also, that only *narrowly* taking the House and not taking the Senate was a small price to pay for overturning Roe and passing draconian abortion laws in the same year. That was literally the only consequence.
Democrats (and the nation) might have also benefitted from a decisive Red Wave. It's possible that would have convinced everyone that Biden's low approval numbers were *real* and he might've been forced to not run for re-election.
I doubt it would have mattered; I don't think Ds were winning 2024 whoever ran.
I go back and forth on this, but what's interesting is that whenever I was inclined to agree and would argue for Biden/Dems acting as if this were their last shot for a while (esp. pre midterms), I was accused of "voter suppression."
well, that's silly.
I was SO DAMN ANGRY after Roe was overturned and Manchin/Sinema were still up their asses about the filibuster. That was bad enough but then Biden would say, "Just give me 2 more Senators in the next Congress and we'll defend abortion rights!" No, kick their asses in gear now!
yeah...I don't know what his options were there exactly, but a much more thoroughgoing attack on the legitimacy of the court seems like it would have been a good place to start.
Biden could have thugged it out with Sinema and Manchin, the first time they even opened up their mouths, like LBJ. W/o party disciple, there is no party. Ds cant win if Senators feel like they can freelance on important Dem items. Crack heads. Tell Schumer to move their offices to the bathrooms.
It also just seemed like they didn’t know it was coming
Biden would never say the Court is illegitimate, but he'd also never actually do anything about it. Trump would say something is "rigged" and then rig it to his favor. Voters respond to action.
Biden was still celebrating putting Jackson on the Court, as if it changed the dynamic of the court like Barrett and Kavanaugh did.
yeah; the biden response was extremely weak. I think he thought it was a losing issue and didn't really want to deal with it. he eventually figured out that was foolish, but jesus christ.
fwiw, unlike many, I think Harris ran a really strong campaign and that the shorter campaign was to her benefit. I think Ds somewhat stumbled into the best possible scenario for 2024, and they still couldn't win. I think it was just a bad, bad year for incumbents.
which sometime happens and which was why dicking around for two years and more before making any sort of effort to hold trump accountable was an incredibly foolish and dangerous thing to do.
You don’t think a change candidate would have had a much better shot than someone who refused to criticize the deeply unpopular President at the time?
The fact that no one tried leans toward Noah being correct. I don't think Newsom, Pritkzer, Whitmer, and Shapiro stood down simply out of deference to Harris.
I agree that a clean break would've suited the mood of the electorate better. The problem is that you would have to run away from your own party -- not just Biden, but the congressional Dems who passed his agenda.
2024 was a coin flip. Run it 10 times and Harris wins 4-5.
I think 2026 is going to be very embarrassing for Republicans
I really wish we could feel confident that Hakeem Jeffries could prove you wrong. Nonetheless.
It's cute that you think Dem votes are going to be accurately counted in the next election.
What lessons need to be learned? Who needs to learn them?
Farking hate how much I agree
Only if we actually have elections. And I am not convinced that that will happen.
Dems retake the House but not the Senate, chalk it up to a bad map (which is technically true), and trudge on to 2028 having changed nothing and learned nothing
Been hearing about "bad senate maps" every two years for 24 years and yet dems have routinely on the senate
The 2014 election was devastating for Democrats and the party never really recovered in Senate elections. The partisan gravity started to take effect. 2020 was a miracle with the GA runoffs but even then the majority included MT, WV, and OH (all gone now)
And there will be surprises in 26. I don't think gop control is a foregone conclusion and i don't want the party thinking that and sending lambs to slaughter as candidates.
Senate races are increasingly nationalized now, so Democrats struggle to win in states where their presidential candidate couldn't also win. NC might prove an exception thanks to Cooper. But every state Biden won in 2020 only gets you to 50 seats (that still requires unseating Collins)
Seems like a totally reasonable task with the party realignment and no trump on the ballot
Maybe i should turn it on its head: When was the last time the dems had a "good" senate map?
In that sense, we agree. Dems have increasingly tough Senate maps because an increasing number of Senate seats are in "red" states. If you can't compete in FL, OH, IA, your options narrow.
2008?
That year was INSANE. Democrats flipped Alaska. (The sitting governor of Alaska was the VP candidate!)
Dems flipped Colorado (a state Bush had won in the past). Dems flipped MN, NH, NC, NM, OR, and VA.
The hatred for Bush was legendary, which makes it all the more galling how rehabilitated his public image has become. The hate was all deserved.
That was also the sort of swing you’d expect though, after Dems routing in 2008.
Well, except for Alaska and NC, Dems held some key seats they flipped. 2014 was when some longstanding Dems in now solid GOP states lost their seats.
People talk about bad Senate maps for two different scenarios: 1) Dems have to defend very red incumbent seats as polarization has made ticket splitting less common. 2) Dems have to win states that are red to obtain advantage. 2026 is 2 and is easier, though Senate is a steep hill.
Yes, it will be very difficult. I am by no means locking it either way. Just that i have heard "tough senate map" every 2 years for decades (Change the map then, dems... But i digress)
What is the lesson everyone talks about but never says? Are we all supposed to know what that means? Can someone tell me the correct lesson from 2024
If I'm reading Swin correctly here, I think he's referring to the rhetorical defensive crouch of Congressional Democrats. If all they do is pivot to "kitchen table issues" for the next year and win in spite of it, they'll just keep doing it - i.e. how we wound up in this mess in the first place
You still didn’t tell me the lesson, you just told me what they will do instead of learning a lesson. Like your still doing the thing of referring to some all knowing lesson without naming it
Maybe you should run on those other issues people actually care about that aren't kitchen table issues, ignoring high prices and unemployment, i guess?
1) running Biden was a mistake 2) running Harris was a mistake 3) trying to run to the right of Trump was a mistake 4) not putting Trump on trial for treason was a mistake 5) trying to win an election while bombing hospitals and schools was a mistake i mean take your pick
No one tried to run to the right of Trump
incorrect www.axios.com/2024/10/06/k...
Nope, I am correct. Posting an incorrect article from the stupidest political reporting outlet - and that's saying something - doesn't change anything. No one ran to the right of Trump, and certainly not on fucking immigration. This is embarrassing for you.
you can get as mad as you like, its a fact that Harris ran on strong immigration and border policies. against a guy promising 20 million deportations
You said run to the right of Trump. Not less to the right of Trump. Words actually have meaning
actually what i said was "trying to run to the right of Trump". yes, words indeed have meaning
So I assume she ran on deporting 25 million people?
We should of ran Mike Keating’s personal favorite candidate for president with all of his exact beliefs is the big lesson?
you asked a simple question and it was answered. not sure why that made you mad
I’m asking you is that the big lesson?
there were many reasons the Dems lost, and i listed some of them
And then even potentially and obviously win the 2028 election for president, but Trump doesn’t leave office and millions of troops are occupying DC and control all police and security and he never leaves office. John Roberts will say it’s fine.
Because most voters just want to say they won. They don’t even care that they’re still losing either way.
Most voters DO care.
A reporter posted on LinkedIn this morning a bit about returning sanity to the White House & I was blown away by the severe response from a pile of Trump supporters. Like red ants finding a dead squirrel. Only a skeleton left after 30 min. Reminded me of Harris’s shocking loss 😭🤕
As long as the elderly corporate Dems continue to undermine the younger more progressive Dems the deeper they dig our graves.
I don’t know, starting with “the Dems take back power”… that’s seems like a lot of expectation for a group of people that cheered on “stern letters”…
Every single thing you think you benefit from came from Dems and you guys sit here jerking it while Repubs tear it all down. Enjoy the future you created
I’m ready to fight! Those of u on the left r the ones knocking down the ideas and pushing for mid terms
Get out of my mind!
The question then becomes one of primaries. If establishment Dems find themselves losing to actual fighters for democracy they may be forced to change. Primary everyone, starting with Chuck Schumer.
You got all that set up? It will be here before you know it.
I'm easily imagining a scenario where Democrats take back the House and Senate (not 2/3) and Trump just ignores them, takes his unlawful incomes and spends them as unlawfully as he likes, free in the knowledge that Congress won't remove him or his officers.
Occam’s razor: dems don’t learn shit.
Dems take back power??? How??
26 elections, folks generally dont like people who put them into a depression. Granted, we may not have real elections..
This is why we need some good primary challengers in safe Dem seats
What would be first on your agenda? Mine is impeach Trump and arrest every member of his administration. There would be different charges for different participants but they would all be felonies. Does America still hang traitors?
Wait, hasn’t he been impeached twice already? When I was a little kid I thought that word meant something. As an adult I’ve learned it’s sort of like a suggestion, or something weaker than that. So what’s the point of doing it again?
Shoot RFK, Jr. into the Sun.