Russia has announced it will no longer abide by its self-imposed INF moratorium. Of course, it was never in a position to credibly claim adherence in the first place, given its continued deployment of the 9M729 cruise missile, which exceeds the INF range limits. 2/7
Russia has vehemently denied this, but even using open-source information, including the diameter and length figures Russia has itself provided, it is clear that something is deeply amiss with the missile. 3/7
My analysis suggests that a conservative estimate of the 9M729’s characteristics, particularly the size of its fuel tank, indicates a range of 1,400 to 1,700 kilometers, well above the 500-kilometer limit. 4/7
This analysis is robust. In fact, the only way the missile’s range would remain below the 500-kilometer threshold is if it carried a very small fuel tank relative to its overall size and/or if its efficient turbofan engine were replaced with a much less efficient turbojet. 5/7
Russia has not credibly demonstrated that either of these conditions applies. Therefore, the only prudent conclusion is that the missile’s range greatly exceeds the INF limits. 6/7
The U.S. decision to withdraw from the INF Treaty in 2019, after years of Russian noncompliance, was therefore entirely correct. Likewise, refusing to engage with Russia on its moratorium proposal has been the only reasonable course of action. 7/7