Notice how I didn't bring up individuals once. Just pure power politics. Strategic interests. Pure realism. No fronts. No fiction.
Replies
I did of course, that's "real politic", but it is only one way of looking at things, but it is not the only one.
aug 28, 2025, 9:21 pm • 0 0 • view
Iran would nuke Israel. The US would have to retaliate. It would be a mess. Very dangerous for the US.
aug 28, 2025, 9:25 pm • 0 0 • view
China wants russia to last against Europe until they move on Taiwan, as an insurance. The war weakens and distracts the US ofcourse and makes China alot of money, but it also insures the US can't go nuclear first, because not only China but also russia will simply go nuclear in response.
aug 28, 2025, 9:28 pm • 0 0 • view
I do not believe this. Israel has own nukes, and iran is a rational actor. They would live like Pakistan and India. I believe bombing iran was a major misstep in US policy (real politic wise). It tells every nation: build a nuke and us won't touch you. It was in the short term interest of Natanyahu.
aug 28, 2025, 9:28 pm • 0 0 • view
Clearly Israel and the US think differently.
aug 28, 2025, 9:32 pm • 0 0 • view
I'll actually concede this point. I too don't believe Iran would simply first strike Israel. But you can look at North Korea and see how it would change everything. Like russia, Iran would use its nuclear shield to cover its offensive operations.
aug 28, 2025, 9:49 pm • 0 0 • view
I do believe russia committed a suicide with this war, so I do not think this is a good example to follow.
aug 28, 2025, 9:55 pm • 0 0 • view
Israel Iran is different. They don't border and Iran extensively deploys proxy forces. Israel and the US wouldn't be able to strike Iran directly if it had nukes. Iran would be emboldened. And we know what they want.
aug 28, 2025, 9:58 pm • 0 0 • view
What I tried to bring up with trump is that human emotions (especially when it is an autocrat like trump or putin) influence the policy and future of the state quite significantly. I'd even argue much more than nukes.
aug 28, 2025, 9:25 pm • 0 0 • view
They're fronts. Actors. Literal tv personalities. Expendable. Insignificant. Grow up. Trump is the perfect president to appease Putin with.
aug 28, 2025, 9:31 pm • 0 0 • view
I'm being strict with you because you're so close and I believe in you.
aug 28, 2025, 9:33 pm • 0 0 • view
Your view can drive the policy if enough people in power believe in it, I'll give you that.
aug 28, 2025, 9:37 pm • 0 0 • view
Everyone believes in survival.
aug 28, 2025, 9:42 pm • 0 0 • view
If that was the case the government wouldn't be gutting CDC and denying climate change. "Everyone believes in what they believe increases their survival chances" is a more nuanced way of looking at this. "Letting russia fail" -> "Nuclear war" is not a guarantee, it is a probability based on beliefs
aug 28, 2025, 9:48 pm • 1 0 • view
Probabilities. Calculated risks. The US intends to win WWIII first. No use in funding research that won't complete before China invades Taiwan.
aug 28, 2025, 9:51 pm • 0 0 • view
Then there's the russians screaming at them about what they'll do.
aug 28, 2025, 9:54 pm • 0 0 • view
The problem in believing this is that it makes ww3 inevitable. This mindset would explain at least partially why military elites won't push back on trump's actions.
aug 28, 2025, 9:58 pm • 0 0 • view
Well China isn't stopping either, is it.
aug 28, 2025, 10:00 pm • 0 0 • view