Seems in-line with Trump's approach to unpleasent news (which he fears could impact his popularity or re-election prospects), e.g., "if you don't test for Covid-19 so much, you won't have so many reported cases!" [and, accordingly, he thinks, the economy will do better in an election year].
Makes me want to watch The Death of Stalin all over again.
Maybe I've been conditioned along these lines, too, but it does seem like a stark break: the district court judges stop this-or-that #Trump initiative regularly, the appellate courts are a mixed-bag, and then #SCOTUS sides with Trump and allows his original order to proceed. Seems like a clear trend
This crystallizes what is, IMO, *the* central problem for #Democrats today: their best and truest critique of #Trump is his authoritarian leanings, his rollback of democracy, and his attack on truth and data. But voters either don't believe it; don't care about it; or think Dems are as bad or worse.
Charlie Kirk may be the most infuriating of all the alt-right folks (and he's got #lots of competition). Did the guy graduate college? Does he have any life accomplishments beyond ... let's be charitable and say "organizing," rather than "grifting," lol?
"Over time, the price effects, while contained thus far, could increase sequentially & unevenly." I'd bet #Trump is counting on this. If prices spike unevenly and at different times, it's far easier for the Admin to claim this-or-that intervening factor, and not #tariffs, are the cause of inflation
This sounds like it's echoing some similar remarks from Donald Trump (tho he really has no problem with editorializing, so long as the press is editorializing in his favor). You think Trump has a point about bias in news coverage?
💯 % correct, and you'd think, by this point, we'd have enough evidence (from both "sides of the pond") to dissuade progressives from mimicking conservatives. See, e.g., Brian Schweitzer's f--king AWFUL 2012 DNC speech ("That dog won't hunt"), which just diminished, rather than elevated, him.
"The AI boom keeps booming." It's now CW that AI is fueling the economy; even I say it, because I see so many others saying it. But *how* is it fueling the economy? AI doesn't make steel for cars or concrete for houses. It doesn't make financial portfolios. It doesn't trade derivatives. So ... how?
Didn't Jimmy Carter sell (or put into a trust beyond his control) his peanut farm when he became #POTUS, all to avoid even the appearance of impropriety? I know, 50 years ago, times change, etc. Times don't always change for the better, tho, and #Trump's monetization of the office is gross/dangerous
He'd be the only other possible option. I don't think he would've beaten Trump, but yes, he's the only other possible one. And isn't he around Biden's age? No guarantees about how he would've handled the pressures of the presidency, either.
Looking back, I don't think there was another viable candidate who would've beaten Trump—even with all of Trump's policy failures, incompetence, and vile actions—in '20. America's in a "bro" moment, partially based on reactions to pandemic restrictions, and Biden was the only "bro"-ish Dem candidate
Okay, fine, but, however ill-advised his decision to seek reelection, Joe Biden was a very good president, and I hope someday folks will be more vocal about that.
(Though I agree with this candidate on the merits)
In '25, it seems hard for #Democrats to position themselves as champions of the working class ("WC"): (a) as @musaalgharbi.bsky.social notes, we look more like a party of college-educated elites who lecture the WC and (b) at a minimum, the WC isn't buying what we're selling on social issues.
I don't understand Nate Silver's argument. I mean, the Obama coalition was built on a mild form of economic progressive-ism and a far stronger form of social progressive-ism, and those majorities were, at one time, thought to be enduring for Democrats. He thinks that's *all* fallen apart?
I wonder if this will mean efforts to curtail architectural standards and enforcement under the Americans with Disabilities Act. That's been a longstanding thorn in the side of businesses, which have to deal with "drive-by lawsuits." Here, I actually have some sympathy for the businesses.
“Best as we can tell, the US has lost 40,000 manufacturing jobs since ‘Liberation Day’.” Fascinating discussion on so much more than that podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/o...
Blue-sky vs. applied science and the roots of authoritarian crackdowns on science and research. A fascinating @nytimes.com article. I need to get this book, "Spin Dictators." Historians See Autocratic Playbook in #Trump’s Attacks on Science www.nytimes.com/2025/08/31/s...
Depressing thread. Maybe I'm too old and unable to grasp the new dynamics, but I tend to think that if we tip into recession, voters will rebel against the party controlling the White House. Put differently, I still agree with James Carville: "It's the economy, stupid," albeit with some qualifiers.
Good grief, what a depressing thread.
To be fair, Supreme Court gets much of the credit for taking us here by ruling in Trump v USA against the USA — and the collaborationist Congress has never missed an opportunity to grease the wheels.
I'm unclear on what the consensus is among economists for the next year or two. Will #tariffs (and tax cuts) be enough of a drag on the economy to tip us into recession, or is the AI boom and other economic forces enough to keep us powering through this longstanding, robust, post-pandemic recovery?
Okay, THIS is posted on Twitter now, when the game is tied, in the 4th quarter, with two minutes left to play. Twitter is the worst, even if it's dumb predictive technology has my team winning. #TheU
Watch the last :30 of this clip. On a Venn Diagram, *this* is where Donald J. #Trump and my policy priorities overlap. youtu.be/Hix5xk9ZH24?...
This is great. #Miami, good work, and let's keep it goin'. ( @miaminewtimes.com ) Miami Gets Lit Thanks to a Wave of New #Bookstore Openings | Miami New Times share.google/AeCvZE0ognFV...
Sounds like a political statement, not a viable business strategy. Customers want some predictability, and may be willing to pay more for it than having to endure the chaos of a store changing prices every week in response to #tariff uncertainty. Just raise prices enough to cover anticipated tariffs
It's shocking. #Trump propels himself into office by railing against "Biden's inflation," promising to reduce inflation right away. And the biggest economic legacy of his early presidency is to *deliberately* spike #inflation. Will there be an outcry? Crazy times www.newsbreakapp.com/n/14GiErB4?&...
"And #Trump is throwing all that away." #MAGA likely doesn't survive post-Trump, but similarly, the world order Trump is trying to create likely doesn't survive post-Trump, either. The world probably largely reverts back to the way it was after he exits the stage. open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
Trump could make these meetings *so much more* dramatic: the least fawning cabinet member gets arrested on the spot, tossed into a #GameOfThrones -style dungeon, and forced to publicly redo their praise or get crowned with molten gold, like Viserys Targaryen. Imagine the ratings!
As @alfranken.bsky.social said, probably 20 years ago, in a book title: liberals love the US like adults, conservatives (and certainly #MAGA #Republicans) love the US like children. It's even more true today than when Franken said it back then.
"It may now be inevitable, according to scientists, that the Gulf of Mexico will leap up beyond the I-10 corridor within the century." Wait, so by 2100, #NewOrleans will be under water, washed away? I think there are similar doomsday predictions for Florida, as well www.nytimes.com/2025/08/26/o...
This sucks. I mean, if it really led to a resurgence of American jobs or manufacturing or industries,I guess I'd say it's worth it, but I very much doubt any of those things will happen (and most economists agree). ( #Trump #MAGA #tariffs ) www.nytimes.com/2025/08/29/b...
This makes complete sense to me. Many fitness influencers/fitness professionals seem to go hand-in-hand, in ideology and demeanor, with the man-o-sphere and/or white nationalism. Active Clubs are white supremacy’s new, dangerous frontier www.newsbreakapp.com/n/14AGqRqQ?&...
AI can make the problem worse, but this is a prototype "shoot first, ask questions later" administration. And they seem to like the cruelty embedded in that approach to governing.
We ain't even there yet. Gone too soon, James.
Not sure how I feel about this. Imo, it comes down to whether the gov't is, in your view, being run by a good, trustworthy actor or a bad, vindictive, authoritarian actor. But you can't know who'll be the next POTUS, which cuts against allowing "state interventions." www.nytimes.com/2025/08/27/b...
It feels like we're overdue for a normal recession, anyway (given the "business cycle"), but add tariffs and the possible softening/bursting of the AI bubble, and this could be a *serious* downturn. Let's hope we can avoid it. www.newsbreakapp.com/n/148O189V?&...
I suppose it's possible that #tariffs will be a mixed bag, in terms of economic impacts, but if they spike inflation, prompt a recession, or hurt the USA's standing in global trade, it seems like a net negative, possibly "big-time." www.newsbreakapp.com/n/1473UNYa?&...
Are these situations *that* analogous?
True.
One of Donald Trump's best political insights is that, if you just stay with it, keep fighting and keep "flooding the zone," many times even the worst scandals will pass. People get tired/discouraged, they fear reprisals for holding to a disfavored position, they have to move on with their lives.
Eh. I live in Coral Gables. We still go out to eat and I see locals at restaurants. But yes, it's expensive. My wife and I can't go out for less than $115, even at local places. Lunch at SweetGreen is about $30 a day. So, between that and a desire to be healthier, I'm eating homemade food more often
The #Trump era is an ongoing social experiment in what issues *really* matter to Americans. If this were a test, we'd be failing it.
Liking music/pop art that's less popular with the current mainstream doesn't put you on the "wrong side of history." And history is big enough to find room for both Taylor Swift *and* TVOTR.
Hmmmm. This, I don't believe. I didn't believe in Epstein conspiracy theories when they were peddled by the right, so I'm not going to jump to believe Epstein conspiracy theories now just because they're suddenly fashionable with the left.
"We cheat ourselves to think of Louisiana v. Callais as principally a #SCOTUS story. It’s the story of the US in this time. If the court has lost its mooring, it will take the rest of us with it." Sadly, Trump's (white) nationalism and the man-o-sphere are having their moment in the sun.
See, e.g., bsky.app/profile/eler...
This article focuses on jobs where you'd expect AI to have an impact. But there are *so* many other industries/careers unmentioned. As an older lawyer, I don't fear AI (yet). But what about researchers, academics, blue-collar workers, craftsmen? Tech will disrupt some of these jobs, but AI?
The 10-15% tariffs are an almost analogous situation. Will they be bad for the economy? *Yes*. Will the world still look the same, no doomsday, and can the bad economic impacts be blamed on other factors? Yes, that, too. Bottom line: I'm skeptical Trump will pay any political price for these actions
But here, as in so many other instances where Trump causes chaos by replacing a stable, competent person with an incompetent hack, the world will, superficially, at least, look the same, there won't be doomsday, and any bad outcomes can politically be blamed on other intervening factors.
I mean, looking at this post in a vacuum, you'd think the #MAGA #GOP is in deep trouble when, in fact, there's story after story these past days about how the right is *crushing* #Democrats nationwide, with the alt-right going mainstream and the electoral college shifting sharply toward #Republicans
Another deeply depressing article. Hoo-boy, we have a *long* way to go to escape the political wilderness. How the Electoral College Could Tilt Further From Democrats www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
They think Trump has captured the national mood, even amid his declining approval ratings, and they don't think it's wise politics to make "democracy!" a central issue. They might be right. Voters don't believe or don't care that #Trump threatens #democracy, or voters think #Dems are just as bad.
Depressing. Gives the impression that progressive ideology is a very minority view that we've struggled to maintain against the broadly-popular "alt-right." I know this isn't true, but the framing! Not so good.
One of the most important reads of August ( @nytimes.com ). www.nytimes.com/2025/08/23/u...
💯 % correct open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
Maybe it's just political posturing / red meat for the base, but I do not like it when either party defies a court order (esp. publicly). Say you disagree with the order, say you'll appeal it, reiterate your reasons for the original act. But follow the order. www.newsbreakapp.com/n/142IQUtk?&...
Fascinating, but I love this stuff. And, as it turns out, led there by hyperlinks in this article, there are many cool, weird YouTube channels dedicated to shortwave radio signals and stations, old and new. It's an eerie, edgy listen.
I do think #Trump is sometimes vilified too quickly, but to claim, using any definition, that he's "empathetic" is crazy. More likely he wilts face-to-face with tough leaders, or his strategy is to make absurd demands then back off to more reasonable deals. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/16/m...
Nostalgia, including so-called "historical nostalgia," can be destructive, but this seems, to me, to be a good trend. Maybe #GenZ has it together. Why Gen Z Is Resurrecting the 1990s www.nytimes.com/2025/08/24/o...
It's really worrisome, especially when you consider people now discounting the value of a bachelor's degree alone. What are people doing to propel themselves in their careers, if not getting bachelor's and then master's and then Ph.D degrees?
Is this something unique to the University of Chicago? Like, financial pressures solely created by poor planning or decision-making? Our daughter is just beginning a master's program (not at UC), so hearing about collapsing liberal arts programs, even at elite institutions, is unnerving.
Actually, this TikTok video does a pretty good job of capturing the mindset of the moment in America, sadly.
I mean, this is the moment we're in. It looks, to me, like a supercharged version of the 1980s, and maybe like the 1950s. It's all performative macho preening and nationalism and faux-swagger and the pendulum swinging back to uber-conservative values. Hopefully the fever will break—soon.
I agree on the merits, but... ● Trump isn't wrong that #Democrats' social policy views helped re-elect him; ● It's an unresolve-able issue (the #GOP / #MAGA say the divisiveness comes from liberals setting aside our shared status as Americans in favor of identity) www.nytimes.com/2025/08/21/u...
To be clear, I'm not saying that such a response would be correct on the merits. I'm saying it's a complicated and nuanced issue, and Sagan, as smart a guy as he was, is presenting an overly-simplified view of the issue (IMHO).
I don't recall if Turner responded. I wonder if he'd say, "Well, all those countries you mention as better than us are allowed to do that because we remain strong. Without the US, they'd have to reorder priorities to maintain their security. And our spending priorities need to be seen in that light"
Every time a party loses badly, there's always a few folks who know how to "fight," and they're beloved for it, but they rarely become the out-party's nat'l leader. I think this is what you're seeing worth Gavin Newsom.
I hope and assume the @nytimes.com book review section is safe?
IMO, the answer's obvious: ● POTUS has immense power to intimidate, demonize, harass; ● Trump is more willing than any other POTUS to abuse that power to retaliate against / punish his enemies; ● #Trump leads a #MAGA cult of personality that'll happily carry out private harassment of his enemies.
A must-listen.
The internet was supposed to be the hammer that promoted democracy and truth, by giving "power to the people," expanding the platform beyond traditional sources, and giving voice to a scrappy new generation of truth-tellers. A new town square. Man, were we ever wrong. It's kinda ruined things.
"Whatever the statistics say, polls show many people in DC— including communities that typically vote Democratic—are deeply concerned about safety, so downplaying street crime is politically perilous." Eh, I mean, both can be true: crime can be a concern but this is a pretext to impose martial law.
Maduro was indicted in the USA for drug trafficking? What, other than shared fondness for strongmen regimes (and, I guess, the fact that both were indicted for attempting a coup), links Donald Trump with this Jair Bolsonaro?
"When it's over and you realize six men created this, it's clear that Radiohead must be the greatest band alive, if not the best since you know who." The Smiths? REM? Big Star? Styx? WHO COULD @pitchfork.com MEAN? Seriously, Kid A is tremendous even 25 years later. pitchfork.com/reviews/albu...
Um, I don't think a "stand your ground" law in DC would shield folks who act against nat'l guard personnel, cops, federal/state troops sent to DC, or even masked folks without gov't uniforms. That doesn't seem like the intended uses, or the likely interpretations of, these laws.
No one is looking for a f--king pee tape, anymore. Hell, there might be some nefarious link between Jeffrey Epstein and Donald Trump hidden in the so-called Epstein files, and even *that's* a topic that's lost steam (if that topic ever really had much steam beyond QAnons and liberal opportunists).
To be fair, wasn't crime rising during (and driven by) the pandemic? That was such a strange time, I wonder if crime statistics during that era would've been much different under an Obama or Biden presidency. Still, Trump is lying, transparency, for political gain, and he should be called out for it
1,600 federal/state troops flooding into DC for what? Look, I don't want crime in DC; my daughter lives there now! But this is way over the top. It's evil performance art, a show of force in favor of one man, and not for DC's benefit. It's also a test run for other cities. Cut it out, Pres. #Trump
Having said what I just said, let me add this: Rubio is 💯 % the kind of politician who will, once done in the Trump cabinet, go on a tour explaining why he *had* to do what he did, to moderate Trump's worst instincts and keep him in check, and he'll claim he protected the USA from the inside! Gross.
It's ... nuanced, lol. Can't be "the boy who cried wolf," but also can't be disclosing all the Admin's deliberations on the Sunday chat shows. It's complicated, as they say!
I can't stand Trump, but here I wouldn't be so harsh. Yes, credibility's important, and it'd've been better for Trump to not say saying "they'll be consequences if we don't get a deal out of this meeting," if there won't be. OTOH, I also doubt you can be completely candid in your public posturing.
One of several main "Crises of the Era" and helps explain the appeal of Donald #Trump. Boy Crisis of 2025, Meet the ‘Boy Problem’ of the 1900s www.nytimes.com/2025/08/15/o...
Not my area of practice, but it sounds like, until recently, this could've been a § 1983 claim (I guess by Media Matters), which used to allow people to sue gov't officials for violating their constitutional rights. IIRC, SCOTUS, this past term, severely cut back on the availability of § 1983 claims
I have a ton of streaming services, including YouTubeTV, but I still hang on to my totally redundant cable service because that's been the only way I can watch regular season Heat games. Now that the team's awful, and I have little desire to watch, maybe I can finally "cut the cord," as they say.
Anyway, congratulations! I'm sure that's better for your health and well-being.
I was half-shocked and half-unsurprised to see that recent poll where teetotalers were nearly half the adult population, a historic high. I've been wondering the last few days where that trend comes from (I doubt it's a wobble or statistical noise). The religious revival? MAGA-ism? The health craze?
Yeah, this is one of the great TV theme songs of the era, along with, e.g., the theme songs from WKRP in Cincinnati and Chico & the Man. Television theme songs don't often become hit singles these days, do they?
"Thank you for your attention to this matter!" is an A+ closing line addition to the President Donald J. Trump posting cannon.
open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
Again, this issue is very personal to me, since my daughter is now living in DC, about to start a master's program at GWU. If crime was out of control there, if I felt she was unsafe, I would support Trump's initiative here. She and I walked DC up-and-down for days. I felt safe and it was beautiful.
"'anomie' — a breakdown in the subtle standards that allow communities to function." This is a terrific, balanced editorial.
"We’re entering an era of policy driven by feelings rather than facts. But facts always win in the end." The assault on data and facts is one of the scariest legacies of the #Trump era. Sadly, I'm not sure I agree with @pkrugman.bsky.social 's last sentence here. open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
I like reading Will Bunch's posts, and I do not like Donald Trump. Having said that, what is clinical about this? It's somewhere between joking (which is what I assume it is) and some form of self-aggrandisement/narcissism, and maybe both.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics? Didn't #Trump just fire the head of this agency for a bad jobs report and nominate a widely-ridiculed hack to replace her? I guess Core Inflation will *miraculously* drop down in the next report. #USPolitics www.nytimes.com/live/2025/08...
If #Trump's right, then by all means, secure the city for its residents. But this seems like a pretext to justify authoritarian measures, and it feels like he's road testing the idea in the hopes of applying it more broadly across the US
This matters to me in ways that go beyond politics. My daughter begins a master's program at GWU in August, we got her an apartment in Dupont Circle, and she'll have night classes 2x a week, so we're focused on safety. I felt safe and comfortable walking DC recently. www.nytimes.com/live/2025/08...
Great post. It goes beyond economics, into meta issues of how social sciences function in dictator-adjacent regimes. Trump may understand something @pkrugman.bsky.social doesn't: in '25, maybe facts aren't as important as "vibes" in convincing folks things are good open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
Here's another instance where I don't know what to believe. Assume it's true, and this company will kick to the US 15% of its revenue from chip sales to China. In a way, it's good! Power politics --> revenue. But it's odd to see the GOP manipulating markets this way www.nytimes.com/2025/08/10/t...