ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
would appreciate rather less fascism and more talk about AV equipment
created August 25, 2023
314 followers 688 following 1,299 posts
view profile on Bluesky Posts
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
I guess to extend my speculation a bit I found this essay interesting, highlightin the tension in the court system bc lower courts have no reliable precedent from (and feel attacked by) S.Ct. Seems reasonable to expect instability/norm breaking from lower courts www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
And if they want lower courts to act consistently with a precedential opinion then they have to write real opinions not just hope they somehow guess what's meant from a cryptic shadow docket case (which was left purposely ambiguous). Absurd. It won't be the last time a lower court tweaks them either
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
it's like looking into the future bill
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
haha i mean regardless of what's actually going on the spinning out of these rumors is an unalloyed political good and a fun time imo
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
lol i cannot wait until the third quarter to ask my uncles if htey heard trump is dead
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
He hasn't been seen in two days and JD Vance said what?
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
i goddamn love the "is trump dying? he's def dying" conspiracy sleuthing and whisper campaign going on
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
This would include say, getting chemo or something and needing a couple days (I'd imagine)
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
Listen have a good weekend. Don't fuck it up.
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
Vought has to go. Pure menace
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
Maybe they're redoing the military parade bc he's dying
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
I gotcha, it's just ... it's too insane! They should not do that and yet, like you say, i have no faith they won't try (and then try to unbreak what they break)
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
ah yeah, def agree -- they're shockingly brazen in trying to break even settled things, things that have historically worked very well for business interest in our country
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
Yo zoom how far away's Christmas again?
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
How would that be related to terminating the CBA/union representation? (Also can't you just wait 6 months after filing?)
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
that first photo is how a toddler w a full diaper walks
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
The Oyster Man! (very cool catch, thanks for sharing)
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
Yeah, i think skepticims makes sense. I def am reserving my opinions on him specifically. But it also is true that we're going to need to take some calculated risks to win a majority (+leave our gerontocracy behind). Which is what a primary's for. So i'm hopeful, let's kick the tires!
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
The people yearn for hope and change!
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
Is that right? Jesus, I'm in a bubble. I just assumed everyone got them alongside their flu shots every year.
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
but also fuck them for putting our health at risk like this. It's absurd and evil
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
I literally run marathons and would tell this lie with zero remorse to my doctor
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
fucking shrink into a corncob already adn gtfo
Cuck Schumer (@schumercuck.bsky.social) reposted reply parent
Lmao you fucking pussies.
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
I haven't seen you talk about this but it seemed you were intimating a disagreement w/ Shor's analysis of how D leaders should be talking. It's weird bc I think most ppl on this site would agree (if that's what you were saying about Jeffries)
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
Lol, the next iterations of USAID and CFPB are gonna have full scale armories. Which come to think of it is about as 21st century American as it gets
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
Feels like it won't be long until the NFL/networks realize they need to put the Kelce brothers in the booth to commentate
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
openai is going to throw like 9 figures at that poor family
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
Rare instance of an event that you'd think could incite a virtuous moral panic
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
That's right
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
I had been very hopeful about Darling 58 but unfortunately it doesn't seem to have worked out for a variety of reasons (but not really regulatory burden). I really hope they'll be able to make it work but so far it's inconclusive at best imo. Here's to hoping! en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darling...
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
"Calvinball is not the law and we won't be ruled by it or John Roberts's gang of corrupt politicians in robes."
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
I personally do not think we should continue with this mad king. I propose a democracy.
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
Waltz and Big Pritz out today with hard-nosed rhetoric. Really like Pritz's retribution couched as justice.
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
I am a liberal and Taylor Lorenz does not speak for me on this issue in fact I don't think she speaks for anyone including the people she purports to speak for
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
Haha, right? It's very funny and every time I see it I hope they never have to tangle over it because it's just too cute and harmless (and honestly no likelihood of confusion etc.)
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
I saw a fun one recently: Nailtique (for a nail salon) but done with the Ski Nautique typeface (something similar to the image below). I haven't looked up the mark at all but I thought it was kind of a funny potential trademark dispute. I hope I'm not divulging this to Nautique's lawyers!
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
cc: Hakeem Shor
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
I personally challenge donald j trump to a 5k race winner gets the army
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
An obvious thing about Shorism is that while trump has been moving/dictating public opinion for a decade Ds have had zero answer bc their median voting theory bs is reflective -- the median voter is changing and now is a fascist! Trump is all the evidence we need ideology is dynamic and malleable.
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
This, but for Dem polling elite consensus
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
Gotcha, yeah I guess either way he looks like dogshit and there have been enough weird visible symptoms to raise an eyebrow (and frankly to spark the curiosity of an engaged reporter or two but lo)
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
What's the literature on GLP-1 drugs for the elderly? I had assumed during the campaign that he was on one bc he seemed a bit slimmer
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
If there were ever a fight worth fighting regardless of its popularity "this fucking guy's trying to take military control of our city and it smells like dictator shit and I'm gonna fight tooth and nail over it" seems like it'd be one
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
It's so weird and dumb that Ds do not explicitly, energetically attack the media
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
What the fuck could invading a city w the military possibly be a distraction from? In most circumstances that's a goddamn act of war. Has everyone with any power in my party gone completely insane?
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
New D leadership (which sounds like a joke but I think the circumstances are already alarming enough that reasonable D leadership would be talking about raising militias and defending the honor of the great states of California and Illinois)
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
This is making me go insane
Brandon Friedman (@brandonfriedman.bsky.social) reposted
Good read
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
How many able-bodied healthy people worry about making it into heaven?! Zero! That's deathbed talk!
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
(But obviously I don't really trust my fuzzy analysis of the situation bc [gestures wildly])
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
Yep, agree. I mean I guess to your point and the OP's, imo the only real way to cement an autocracy is to build it on top of the already existing structure. If we elect a congress and they refuse to seat it such that it causes secession etc. then they've already lost consolidation bc it's just war
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
This liminal state we're in now that hasn't triggered full resistance/war (but where he controls $, troops) is actually a weirdly strong position for him bc everyone's still betting on waiting out the next few years. If he's outright makign the military decide like that ... I dunno, it's a risk!
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
Yeah this one I agree w fully. The only thing I'd add is that Vivek is also extremely annoying and off-putting and that can matter
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
Right, for sure. But you could sketch an economic (or otherwise turbulent) scenario where rurals/exurbs stay home and col+ voters in teh suburbs are highly engaged (like a 2018+ scenario). I don't know how to handicap that but I think it's possible.
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
Yeah. I mean I guess I don't know. I think Sherrod being on the ballot and (Trump not) is good. Obvi a lot depends on if the Trump hogs come out to vote. I think the more liberal and suburban vote will get out. But it's a long way away and lots could happen. I don't think Viv is a good candidate
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
My gut feeling is Ryan might have a shot but Acton does not. I don't really know why I feel that way other than she's going to get slaughtered in fundraising w a million anti-covid lock down ads against her (plus sexist vibes, which I hope are wrong but I worry about)
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
The End of History
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
Today's the first day that it's seemed to me worse than even odds we get out of this without a hot military contest. All opposition institutions have been putting their heads down trying to run out the clock and he's never ever going to take yes for an answer. So eventually it'll be a real fight
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
Yeah but who knows what kind of year next week's gonna be
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
I like to think of this as a corollary to the "it can't happen here" fallacy
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
Yeah, I feel for the. I guess I wonder how much slow-rolling and malicious compliance is going on in that case (and in what contexts that can happen). Anyway, sorry to bend your ear here
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
I dunno man if I were a front-line prosecutor being asked to do this stuff ... I think I'd be eyeing the exits
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
won't over-charging just lead to fewer plea-bargains (and thus further strain the DOJ)?
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
we don't have to like it but "cartographer in chief" is funny
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
I think what's so invigorating about her is that she continually rejects being boxed in by the cons shell game proceduralism and clearly explains the stakes in a way that makes them uncomfortable
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
A thing I hope about the conservatives on this Court, before it is rendered impotent by Maga or destroyed by us, is that they continue to hem and haw and bristle and feel the embarrassment that one among them so clearly sees them for the hacks that they are
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
It's some small salve that KBJ needles ACB so relentlessly. In the same way, at least no one over there seems to be having fun.
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
It was ... a bit jarring (?) to hear him say that so explicitly
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
But also let me counter that to me it seems like a fantastic mix
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
Them, sowing:
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
I mean not to absolve the media here but if what he had to do was declare martial law and threaten giving away a sovereign ally's territory to escape the Epstein story for a while ... I dunno, doesn't seem like he got out unscathed (nor did we, i guess obviously)
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
Interesting that this is where he's chosen to break his silence (def agree it's good he's legitimizing this effort)
Graham Platner for Senate (@grahamformaine.bsky.social) reposted
Power exists for those who are willing to organize for it and to take it.
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
I had been blaming this on Big Media choices. But maybe also just that the media environment is algorithmd so completely that it's flat and the monoculture is too dead to raise salience of these things ...?
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
we're a decade+ into the era of "you literally could not make this shit up if you tried" What if Chekhov's gun, right? In an insanely escalatory and combustible situation? And it just goes off *on its own* lmao
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
i fucking hate you
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
Think one of the more successful stump lines a D could adopt now would be mercilessly attacking the NYT (right after "kill the maga bastards"). Like, Fox needs to be attacked too, but it's maddening seeing the NYT hollow itself out.
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
I go back and forth on this. Like, that's all true. But also bc the media landscape has flattened so much lightning in a bottle is really valuable. And you don't want to lose energetic, charismatic candidates in favor of boring oldsters who have waited their turn (and are overly cautious/afraid)
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
Yeah, like I'm sure he'll milkshake duck me, but i'll stand by the broader point
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
Personally very on board with reclaiming virtuous masculinity! We don't need to concede manliness to a bunch of fucking fascist dorks. (I don't know this guy etc. etc. but why the hell not?)
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
Same
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
I like the cut of his jib (seems charismatic + taking some lightly heterodox positions for a D in Iowa is good and fine)
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
jesus christ, gonna make this post my profile picture
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
yep. And in the same way that part of trump's posting power is that he's dumb but indefatigable, the longer they keep at it the better it's gonna work
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
1) if anybody's interested give the shitheel a call 2) how tf can a voicemail box be "full" in 2025?
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
Yep, fair enough. Sorry to hear they dropped support for it. Good luck!
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
(all apologies if you were just venting)
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
Dunno how tech savvy you are (or if you've already thought of this) but you might be able to use a tiny raspberry pi to effectively make your old printer a wireless printer. Maybe too much work but you might gain some functionality that way. e.g.,: www.tomshardware.com/how-to/raspb...
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
Not to harp on this but it really implies DC statehood not just as a strategic political tool but (now quite clearly) as necessary to better guarantee the rights of the people.
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
Dem leaders should start publicly asking if the president is trying to spark a civil war
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
I am fucking *furious* about this shit. If you sent other states' NGs to my city how am I supposed to think that's anything other than an act of war?
Musicology Duck (@musicologyduck.bsky.social) reposted
ok today is going to be one long walk as i try to blend getting my weekend chores done with community organizing events... will pop in and out of this thread if i see anything noteworthy
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
This is also why Newsom is resonating -- for all the sturm and drang over his shittiness (true!) he's the one actually forwarding plans to try to fuck over the GOP and that's what people are noticing and drawn to. The people yearn for revenge!
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
I dunno how this ends but in the version where we're still a united states DC statehood results from this garbage
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
One of the things we've def learned from Trump II/Doge is that it's very possible to terrorize an agency and destroy morale. Fire them all if you can, sure. But also fire indiscriminately. Gin up the rumor mill re referrals to DOJ. As Vought might say, there's plenty to be done to put them in trauma
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social) reply parent
year of the linux desktop baby
ol tonyo (@fraustian.bsky.social)
Is this an excellent update? Because to me this still feels like hot gossip kremlinology. Speculation masquerading as reporting. The nut here is that Putin doesn't have good reasons for his war and Trump's not interested in that anyway. Which I don't think is surprising.