Outstanding đ
Retired IBM VP Corporate Strategy. Now writing & consulting on politics, economics and business. Author of The Fifth Paradigm.
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Outstanding đ
Love that movie. Fun fact, my mother had Hepburnâs exact job at Pratt Library in Baltimore in the 1970s. She was once asked to interpret a set of tracings someone had made in a local cemetery. They turned out to be Celtic Oghams spelling âlove and toil.â I was soooo impressed.
We didnât have a lot of money growing up. My mom often explains that all us kids needed was a wooden spoon and a few Tupperware bowls. In kindergarten they got me a folding army shovel and I spent the next several months digging a hole to China. Not sure I got two feet, but every dayâŚ
Exactly right. Could also contact folks in Miami, Tampa, etc. - Cover Florida with rainbow crosswalks. lol - the folks in the Arts District of Miami might even help organize a statewide ârainbow crosswalk competition.â Thatâs exactly the right strategic mindset.
They expect the welcome allied troops in WWII got entering Paris. They donât realize the welcome theyâll get is the same as the original Nazis.
Wait. Rudy Giuliani was hospitalized the same weekend as Trump went into hiding? Were they together at any point? Were there any DHS flights between DC and NH? There was reportedly a domestic disputeâŚWhere was Melania? Seems weird. Just asking questions đ¤ˇđťââď¸
The National Park Service had 200 people who did this work before all but 20 of them got DOGEd. None of them were armed, nor did they march around in tactical gear. They used pickups and riding mowers instead of armored vehicles. Seems more efficient and vastly more civilized.
Well, I guess we can choose between banning assault rifles, a policy we once had and know works, or we could try banning assault rifle owners. Just send all of them into the rendition system the administration is building. As they say, even one is too many.
Your whole series of Greenland photos has been fantastic and inspiring. Great work and thanks for sharing. đđđ
His clarity of language is helpful in framing whatâs happening. This process, framing how the public thinks about policies and events, is the heart of politics. Very few Democrats understand it at all. Iâd add that they arenât âUSâ troops, theyâre Confederate troops. @govpritzker.illinois.gov
Barely started.
As Iâve commented before, there are no more than 10-15 total customers in the world for current leading edge semiconductors. Theyâre all spoken for and the new ones are all in China. Iâve yet to see a single pundit with any understanding of whatâs unfolding.
Correct. Details in my book, The Fifth Paradigm. Btw - many of the policies China has successfully used over the past 25 yrs were based on studying our historically unmatched success.
Iâve been reluctant to join the eugenics bandwagon because it seemed extreme. Getting hard to ignore.
Thatâs a highly lethal mulch. Gardening has never been so dangerous.
No 20th century economy will be able to compete with a 21st century economy. Our strategy of returning to the 19th century is sheer lunacy. Chinas strategy of inventing and deploying the leading edge of 21st century economic fundamentals while avoiding 20th century mistakes will be winning.
So has FEMA just become a slush fund for this administration? They no longer handle emergencies just pass out political favors?
Whenever anyone from this administration uses the word âbureaucratâ what they mean is âcompetent & experienced public servant.â Not sure which frightens them more, the competence or the public service.
The idiocy of ideology. Medicare isnât perfect but itâs the best system we have. Private insurance is a proven medical disaster. We could adopt what works and apply it more broadly. We chose to take what doesnât work and impose that on Medicare. Why? Ideology & enslavement by our oligarchs.
Itâs consistently 38-40%. Iâve led large organizations in my career and I cannot imagine trying to accomplish anything of substance if 38-40% of the team is committed to our failure. Itâs particularly bad when theyâre actively encouraged to sabotage anything they can. Rebuilding will be very hard.
Well, this will mean that basically all modern buildings are illegal, particularly in the commercial districts of most cities. That would include *all* his non-golf properties, specifically Trump Tower.
Worth noting that when the administration announced theyâd be tracking the social media political comments of 55 million immigrants they didnât say theyâd be doing the same for US citizens. For a number of reasons, both technical and non, Iâm pretty certain itâs all of us.
2/ Think about groping for a conversation topic at a party. Or, notice how much of our internal focus of is on what weâre going to say next rather than listening when someone else is speaking. Or, watch someone being interviewed and simply âhavingâ to finish a cliche when theyâve made their point.
1/ Rich topic and will be so for at least a generation. One of the many things I find fascinating is just how much human behavior really is just âsearching for the next wordâŚâ Once you watch for it youâll see it everywhere. Itâs obviously not *all* we do⌠but we do it a lot!
4/ I expect to see a lot of that. Thereâs a great big world out there and, ironically, by making the US market completely uncompetitive, many businesses will be forced out of their US comfort zones. Unfortunately, itâs impossible to serve a non-US mkt from the US. Hence his need to build in Taiwan.
3/ Heâs nearing closure on the Taiwan leg of the strategy, has already been fielding sales inquiries from potential new customers in Australia and has two promising distribution partnerships developing in the EU. Both he and his team are pretty excited by all the non-US opptys theyâre finding.
2/ He doesnât want to push this too hard because he values his relationships with his distributors. B) The main strategy is to build a new assembly capability in Taiwan and spend the next 3-4 yrs building his non-US sales and distribution capabilities.
1/ One of the businesses that I work with has historically relied on key parts from China and Mexico for the goods they produce here in the US. Most of his sales come from US customers buying through US distributors. His strategy: A) Shift US sales to direct. Wonât do much but should help a bit.
The DoD decision to treat domestic terrorism as a laudable, even heroic activity, means this administration views committing acts of domestic terrorism as a central part of their mission. All our anti-terrorism orgs & policies should treat them accordingly.
Guess they must plan to flood the streets to float their boats. Or, maybe theyâll shell the Smithsonian from the Chesapeake Bay? Theyâre all about death and destruction, so who knows.
The Sullivan Doctrine is destroying US leadership in semiconductors. Ignorance is a bad foundation for industrial policy. Arrogant ignorance is almost always fatal eventually. Caveat Emptor.
The services vanish, but the healthcare needs of the people do not. In fact, because of the loss of preventative care and the necessity of relying on ER, healthcare costs go up.
Agree. Just posted the following which adds to your point. Btw - the other dimension is the nature of the counter party. If itâs someone âinsideâ your firm (team, collective) we behave differently (cooperate & collaborate) than if theyâre âoutsideâ (dominate & compete.) bsky.app/profile/joel...
2/ Chinese state involvement is focused on maximizing the size of the pie, followed by ensuring everyone gets the slice they deserve. US state involvement cares only about the slices going to the govt and the oligarchs. They care & understand little to nothing about the size of the pie.
1/ At least 95% of this discussion is ridiculous ideological posturing by people with zero real knowledge. Let me offer a different perspective. In strategy we distinguish between how much value is created (size of the pie) and how much value is captured by whom (who gets what slices.)
#NIH is hanging by a thread. The #CDC has been decimated. #RFK Jr. and Russell #Vought are psychopaths--I don't say this frivolously--they are cold, calculating, inflicting violence on millions through public policy. It is where we are right now. These men are not normal. 1/
substack.com/@markruffalo...
Solar panel exports from China to Africa surged 60 per cent over the past year, says @ember-energy.org. Unlike previous jumps, this upward trend was spread across the continent â with 20 countries seeing import records and 25 countries importing more than 100 megawatts worth of panels.đđĄ
Unfortunately, this was exactly the same reasoning used by German politicians & elite in the early 1930s. The global economic collapse drove the Nazis and the Communists from political irrelevance to contenders for leadership. They choose Hitler, thinking they could control him. They were wrong.
Heâs referring to the Bayh-Dole act which has been a bit of a mess and badly needs reforms. The odds this administration will even understand the issues, let alone take a constructive approach towards resolving them is basically zero.
Energy is one of the embedded costs of modern economies. Itâs everywhere. With the transition to EVs, Chinaâs cost advantage extends to transportation as well. Factor in our excess healthcare costs and tariffs and the US simply canât compete. As Pogo said âWeâve met the enemy⌠â
One of the most basic metrics that drives business strategy is price elasticity. The customers who bought these on a price to value basis have all been driven away. Whatâs left are cult members & political loyalists. They have very low elasticity. However, they also have thresholds past which âŚ
Digger for DeVito would be a good deal for both the Giants and the Pats.
Where can I get my elderly white hippie ID card? We do throw great parties đ
Love the whole eastern side. This is down near Lone Pine on a year where the snow melt brought the lake back to life.
Doubtful, but if so, good riddance.
We really donât need more cops. In fact, most forces need serious house cleaning, personnel turnover and leaders prepared to drive systemic organizational cultural change. Better ideas would include gun controls, building housing, community services and UBI.
I repeat this constantly and will continue to do so. The vast majority of immigration offenses arenât crimes. Theyâre civil misdemeanors, literally the legal equivalent of parking tickets. The MAGAts have inflated them to capital offenses which is a sadistic theatre of the absurd.
2/ The phrase âthose who know the price of everything know the value of nothingâ risks appearing in every chapter if not every page. Chicagoâs history could have inured them to this grievous error but it appears even they have succumbed. A project to restore and renew all thatâs important looms.
1/ The neoliberal project to reduce all human activity to financialized markets has been incredibly destructive to the vast expanse of things we humans value that donât fit that paradigm. My latest writing project is delving into many of them.
8/ As an aside, as a retired business executive I think about investments in both capital assets and people as the essential fuels of sustained success. Renewable energy production and distribution are critical asset investments. UBI is among the best proven investments in people.
7/ The buybacks are currently leaving our real economy and moving to the casino. Our excess healthcare just raises the cost of our human essentials. Neither creates any real value. UBI puts all of that into the hands of free citizens to use as they choose. Satisfying those needs drives our economy.
6/ If we redirected those resources to UBI we could provide roughly $1000/month to every US adult. All this money is already in circulation so it canât be inflationary. (That whole debate is bogus, but Iâll leave that argument out for this thread.)
5/ By âfixingâ these two socioeconomic design defects of our current policies we make $3T/yr available to redirect to better uses. Iâd put capital investment in our energy transition and UBI near the top of potential uses. Those âfixesâ arenât easy (nor strictly necessary) but definitely doable.
4/ Two easy examples are $1T/ yr of stock buybacks and at least $2T/yr in excess healthcare spending. The former represents capital which businesses have decided they donât need and the latter arises from the unique defects of the US healthcare system.
3/ For this thread I will only be focused on those forms of abundance embedded in currently allocated or accumulating resources which are above and beyond whatever is required to sustain that abundance.
2/ Every economic textbook explains that âeconomics is the study of resource allocation amidst scarcity.â The âeconomics of abundanceâ is unexplored territory. Iâve already written well over 100 pages on that exploration, including just defining different aspects of the concept.
1/ Agree. Let me offer a possible conceptual roadmap. These steps are *not* needed but I find the thought process helpful. The major theme of my current book project is the latent âabundanceâ hidden all around us. The very term âabundanceâ needs enormous conceptual work.
True. Many of the organizational and mgmt principles we teach in modern Exec Ed can trace their roots to the slave industry. They did evolve over time. Eg The capex allocation methods used by slavers changed significantly with the railroads and modern functional org structures rose with autos.
Is this why they need 10 guys in tactical gear to terrorize an 80 yr old grandmother? She no longer carries a ruler but she might have a deli sandwich.
China is bigger, growing much faster, far easier to do business with and has vastly more business integrity. The advice Iâm offering clients is to shift their focus overseas, at least until Trump and the Republicans are out of power. Several have done so already with excellent results.
Itâs Union cities and theyâre being occupied by Confederate forces. Itâs not a new Civil War, itâs the resumption of the first one.
For a large and growing number of people, that âmicro-unitâ is an RV. Traditional âcampersâ still exist but more and more RVers are âfull timers.â
It misses the single most important aspect - price elasticity. I spent 20 yrs in Corp Strategy and studied countless markets and their elasticities. Those clean âXâ curves they show in economics 101? Never saw one. The number of broken bones or heart attacks has nothing to do with prices.
The MAGAts may be terrified by much of humanity and the world but itâs a bit ridiculous that the rest of us must live with their infantile fears. Can we get a âlook under the bed / closetâ tech service that assures them there are no monsters? Good project for DOGE. apnews.com/article/us-t...
Never been a Bolton fan but appreciate his clarity and accuracy.
2/ All those potential clients are already signed up with TSMC, Samsung or, increasingly, Chinese fabs. Switching even one takes yrs of work and Intel probably needs several. The US govt âtrusted foundryâ business isnât even the right order of magnitude. All the potential *new* clients are Chinese.
1/ Intel is in serious trouble and basically none of the commentary about the situation has any idea whatâs going on. Filling these fabs takes enormous revenue streams from either high volume or high value customers. Not sure there are more than 10-15 in the world. www.reuters.com/legal/legali...
Where does one even begin. The headline, from the Whitehouse, seemingly providing independent confirmation is bonkers. The substance sounds like a great list of exhibits drenched in sneering vitriol. Insane. www.whitehouse.gov/articles/202...
Need to start clarifying what the term âNational Guardâ refers to. These arenât from Ill or NY. These are Confederate troops being used to occupy Union cities. History is busy rhyming itself.
55 million fellow residents of this country are now or will soon be under continuous social media speech monitoring. Criticizing Trump or any US policy can lead to swift rendition to a random global labor camp. This isnât America. www.bbc.com/news/article...
The median amount of cash was $881 a month, and it cut homelessness by about two-thirds. It was also tested against vouchers, which did not do as well (19% at 18 mos). One reason the cash was better was because they could use it. One out of four voucher recipients couldn't find anyone to accept it.
BREAKING: A federal judge in Miami gave the state of Florida 60 days to clear out the immigrant detention facility called Alligator Alcatraz â handing environmentalists and the Miccosukee Tribe of Indians a win.
Know the area and spot quite well. On my first visit, over 40 yrs ago, I decided to try the Bubbles trail thinking maybe it had a bubbling stream or cool rocks. Little did I know that âBubblesâ was the name of the Dolly Parton of the âsummer cottageâ era. Her âcleavageâ is centered in your photo.
Good article. Unfortunately, the Trump administration has proven that the US canât be trusted either. Btw - having negotiated complex business deals all over the world, Iâd trust China far more than either the US or Russia and thatâs a travesty of everything we used to stand for.
I grew up in Maryland and school field trips to the Capital and Smithsonian were pretty much standard events. Canât imagine any school district would want their students being forced into ID (and gender?) inspections.
One of the most remarkable and impactful transformations of all human technology and civilization in history is happening right now!
You can do better in pretty much any local diner.
Putin sending Trump a signal and probably emphasizing whatever warnings or threats left the US Alaskan entourage looking so ashen.
He was pretty explicit on the campaign trail when he promised âyouâll never have to vote again.â Seems like ~40% of the country is ready to abandon this democracy thing. Many are also ready to revert to pre-enlightenment beliefs and practices as well. Ugly times.
You mean those stern letters from Schumer and Jeffries arenât working? What a shock. Maybe the next ones will do the job. đ¤ˇđťââď¸
The only thing more ridiculous than Trumpâs policies is this article. Crippling US consumption through tariffs and US production through uncompetitive energy will not halt the progress of Chinaâs ongoing economic development. A 19th century economy will never surpass a 21st century economy.
Look, the Directors at FoxNews have standards for their B-Roll content. Soon theyâll be busing in paid extras from Confederate states to pose as cheering throngs. The PT Barnum inspired show for the fools at home must go on!
Apparently the NIH is being blocked from doing research on Covid, womenâs health, or the impact of policies on communities of color. The administration apparently doesnât believe the health of any of these groups is of any value. Values matter.
The MAGAts have visions of the welcome US troops received in their WWII march across Europe. What they donât realize is that the Nazis got a very different âwelcome.â History education helps.
Clarity can be quite helpful, particularly when it spreads widely. Trumpâs 40% support level has been pretty solid. Not sure how many of those folks would agree to rewrite world history along these lines. Half? Maybe, but probably not moreâŚ?
His systematic destruction of the US economy continues. This represents an enormous piece of the US workforce. The closely related destruction of the social contract binding the nation just magnifies the impact. Do 40% of Americanâs really want this? Seems soâŚ
Still very early. Important to keep in mind that the tariffs only began hitting a month or so ago and that with shipping lags, inventories and pre-buying their real impact on prices have barely started. Watch this space.
Not much point negotiating any sort of deal with either the Israeli or US govts as long as Netanyahu and Trump are in place. Neither leader has the integrity of a subway rodent.
For some folks, their Real ID will be more than sufficient. Others will need to guess how many jellybeans are in the big jarâŚ
I lived in Denver before moving to Bend. One of the things I love about both cities is how different neighborhoods have their own small commercial block(s) with local restaurants, salons, convenience stores etc. NW Crossing, Galisteo and Newport aves are great west side examples.
Ah yes, the deadly scourge of⌠moped drivers? Did I miss that campaign slogan?
This is an interesting read. I don't agree with everything in it (I'll detail in thread below) but the fact that sometime is deeply broken is undeniable.
Wrote a book on this topic, The Fifth Patadigm, which includes my thoughts on the path ahead. Currently working on my next piece of the puzzle which centers on the economic conundrum of true abundance. bsky.app/profile/joel...
My book, The Fifth Paradigm, puts all of this in historical context. What this author calls a âcultural settlementâ is what I call a âsocioeconomic paradigm.â Weâve had four in our history and itâs time for our Fifth, hence my book. More details below. jcawley-37424.medium.com/will-the-tim...
Well, if heâs surrounded by 50 ICE agents in full tactical regalia to one of the incredibly dangerous Smithsonian museums⌠they need to be on the lookout for those deadly elementary school field trips. You never know what those teacher chaperones might do and the kids might even have sandwiches.
âLong COVID researchers have proven, to an irrefutable degree, the scale and urgency of this global public health crisis...we are beginning a new era of incredible advancement in the field." @betsyladyzhets.bsky.social and I reported on the Keystone Symposia. thesicktimes.org/2025/08/19/t...
