Government and policy writer. Views are my own. pbacon@tnr.com
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"These actions that are being taken across the board are part of a larger war on the working class," says @jmargetta.bsky.social of the Century Foundation, describing the Trump administration's economic policies. newrepublic.substack.com/p/daily-life...
In one of the debates in New York mayor's race, Mamdani (and Lander) both praised Boston Mayor Michelle Wu. She has been one of the most passionate voices defending cities and urban life as Trump trashes them. And she's stayed popular in way Brandon Johnson has not. newrepublic.com/article/1997...
newrepublic.com/article/1997...
newrepublic.com/article/1997...
From an excellent piece by @dziblatt.bsky.social. www.foreignaffairs.com/germany/hitl...
The argument they give is Dems would have won more House seats and Biden by a larger margin but for the defund slogan and that Harris could have won or done better but for the things she said in 2019. These are not my arguments, but Spanberger basically gave the former in Nov 2020. Thoughts?
"Dems are so worried about alienating a small slice of the electorate they’re hesitating to condemn the most abusive act yet by an unpopular president. I’m no strategist, but boy does that sound like a losing strategy," writes @monicapotts.bsky.social. newrepublic.com/article/1996...
"Dems are overlearning the lessons from the last election and ignoring the new realities unfolding. Trump’s approval rating continues to fall, even among those who voted for him in 2024. They disapprove of his actions on immigration, the economy, and other issues." newrepublic.com/article/1996...
Great @meredithshiner.com piece. newrepublic.com/article/1996...
"Now that a lawless president has taken over D.C. because he does not like anything D.C. represents—as a place where the federal government is practiced, or an example of multicultural urban life—I need you to know what is happening to the District is devastating." newrepublic.com/article/1996...
To underscore @brendannyhan.bsky.social's point, this is the verdict (in March) from Lindberg, directing a world-leading research group on democracy: "If it continues like this, the United States will not score as a democracy when we release [next year's] data." And continued it has. 1/2
"I was encouraged to see the CDC director refused to resign, to force the Trump administration to fire her. I was thrilled to see Lisa Cook refuse to passively accept Trump's attempt to fire her and to say instead, no, this is illegal," says @brendannyhan.bsky.social.
"You don't need a partisan lens to see when troops are occupying the nation's capital and masked men are kidnapping people off the street, you should be worried about authoritarianism. If you've cracked the history book once or twice, you don't need much expertise to recognize what we're seeing."
"Scholars who study these processes around the world have really been taken aback by how quickly this has proceeded," says @brendannyhan.bsky.social. newrepublic.substack.com/p/democratic...
Scholars are sounding the alarm. Michigan's @donmoyn.bsky.social has an important piece declaring that we are in authoritarianism now. (donmoynihan.substack.com/p/the-author...) Here's Dartmouth's @brendannyhan.bsky.social making a similar argument.
I spoke with @perrybaconjr.bsky.social about why we need candidates who will fight for a government that does more for working people, not less. It's not a radical concept.
"Some folks hours after November pivoted right. 'A man is a man and a woman is a woman.' That comes off so cheap, so thirsty. I don't know who you're winning, but I certainly know who you're losing with that approach," says @mauricewfp.bsky.social. newrepublic.substack.com/p/fighting-m...
"You don't need to deny or disappear your values. You don't need to give up on some of the most at-risk or marginalized communities. It is a complete fallacy. What people desire in their leaders is authenticity and fight," says @mauricewfp.bsky.social. newrepublic.substack.com/p/fighting-m...
A lot of the discourse is really how do Dems win in November 2028. That's an issue where the answers will be clearer in June 2028. Also participating in policy/activism/organizing/defending one another has never before and should not now depend on you analyzing how every action affects elections.
My view 1. it is critical to focus on the fascism and doing whatever we can to protect people from it NOW; everything is not electoral 2. Dems winning the House in 2026 is useful but may do little to stop the fascism 3. Dems are favored in 26 because out-party wins midterms and Trump is unpopular.
It might be worth engaging a more charitable reading of his comment. I (and others on here) have criticized the Third Way/Dems must throw people under the bus strategy. I/others have also criticized the "this is a stunt, let's talk about the economy" strategy. So what are we for?
"Third Way is in the business of representing corporate interests within the Democratic Party. The point isn’t necessarily that Democrats win, but that the balance of power within the party tilts to the favor of big business." stringinamaze.net/p/is-activis...
"The year in which activist language was most prominent – 2020 – was the year Democrats actually won," writes @notalawyer.bsky.social. stringinamaze.net/p/is-activis...
Super important thought from Steve Levitsky, co-author of "How Democracy Dies." newrepublic.com/article/1996...
An example of how democratic erosion cumulates. These events are not happening independently; they reinforce each other.
This. This. This.
People (not you) were asking if Blue Rose is a serious firm with real influence. I was confirming that they are. I don't have strong feelings about their advice---except for my worry that describing serious violations of democratic principles as distractions and stunts minimizes what's happening.
Leadership. From @govpritzker.illinois.gov. www.cbsnews.com/chicago/news...
www.rollingstone.com/politics/pol...
Blue Rose Research, the group that sent the memo encouraging Dems to cast the National Guard in DC as a stunt and distraction, is not just any firm. They helped shape the ads run by Future Forward, the main Democratic super-pac in 2024, as this piece explains. www.nytimes.com/2024/10/17/u...
www.nytimes.com/2024/10/17/u...
To Donald Trump and his administration: If you hurt my people, nothing will stop me — not time or political circumstance — from making sure you face justice under our constitutional rule of law.
Despite what some Democratic consultants suggest, the pro-democracy party’s first question shouldn’t be, “Does stopping fascism poll well?”
When they start doing a fascism, you do everything in your power to stop them. Those are the rules. And you convince the public that they should be on board with that effort, too. Just imagine these guys (they’re all guys) at other periods of American history. Just wild shit.
Dear journalists: The President has not fired Lisa Cook. The President is *trying* to illegally fire her. Your words shape people’s reality. Please be accurate in your reporting.
Leadership. Pritzker speech. www.cbsnews.com/chicago/news...
“‘the arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice’ …It doesn’t bend on its own. History tells us we often have to apply force needed to make sure that the arc gets where it needs to go. This is one of those times.”
Many Democratic politicians don't sound like Hakeem Jeffries. Thank goodness.
Great discussion between two of our best political thinkers and writers. Worth the long read.
"I would like to see people talk less, “Here are five ways Trump is violating the Constitution,” and more, "Here are the ways Trump’s actions are violating the democratic rights we are fundamentally entitled to as human beings," says @ositanwanevu.com. www.bostonreview.net/articles/dem...
At The New Republic, @perrybaconjr.bsky.social opens his column with a list of things that the media should be doing... ...but aren't to address this dangerous moment. Instead, mainstream outlets seem intent on pretending that none of this is actually happening. newrepublic.com/article/1994...
“There is no electoral risk to hammering away on Trump’s dictatorial tendencies—and a huge risk to the nation in ignoring them.” Important @perrybaconjr.bsky.social. Connecting the dots about how Trump is aggrandizing his power is deeply important & does not preclude discussions of economic issues.
Great insights from @whstancil.bsky.social is his conversation with @gregsargent.bsky.social. newrepublic.com/article/1995...
Trump’s militarization of Los Angeles seems to have been just the start of an authoritarian takeover of American cities. This is not leadership. This is a scary, unlawful grab for power, and we should all be deeply concerned.
Rhetoric itself does not accomplish much. But it's better to have political leaders describing Trump's dictatorial ambitions openly as opposed to downplaying them as stunts or distractions. Also, it is scary and unlawful and we should all be concerned. Troops could be in your city or mine soon.
This memo is being sent to Democratic leaders/elites, arguing that directly attacking Trump's deployment of the National Guard in DC is politically unwise. It encourages the use of terms like distraction and stunt. (I am not endorsing this kind of thinking at all. ) www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/bz9d8...
If you ever receive one of these "don't talk much about authoritarianism" Dem messaging memos, please hit me up on here or via email. I will try to get them mass circulated. It's worth everyone seeing these memos, particularly when the language electeds are using seems lifted directly from them.
I find this stuff maddening. But my take is that Blue Rose/Third Way/Slow Boring are just today's equivalents of the DLC, PPI and Mark Penn's polling outfit from the 90s/early 2000s. The problem is that elected Dems want and solicit this kind of advice.
It is from Blue Rose Research and seems like the kind of thing you read before you announce that the National Guard being deployed into DC is a distraction.
It is hard to quote from the memo without repeating its pseudoscience message testing framework. But it leans into distract/stunt and states, "messages that centered on D.C.’s low crime rates, the violation of Democratic norms, and rising authoritarianism were unfortunately highly unconvincing."
Ask and you shall receive. I was sent a polling/strategy memo that is being circulated in DC. It offers advice to Dems on Trump sending the National Guard to DC. "Distract" is used 10 times. "Stunt" four. I'll try to post it later, but I assume others have it as well.
But if you disagree with the virtues being signaled (hire more women and people of color, redistribute power, tax the rich more, Palestinian lives mater, greater equality is possible) while calling yourself a liberal/Dem, your only course is vaguely attacking "virtue signaling."
Censoring the Smithsonian isn't an economic issue. It's in some ways symbolic and doesn't affect every American. But see how Van Hollen (one of the good ones) doesn't dismiss this as a distraction or a stunt, because it's important and matters.
Yes. Great @hamiltonnolan.bsky.social take. www.hamiltonnolan.com/p/more-dei-l...
I actually don't think gaming out the vp candidates for 2028 is that helpful or useful right now!
On a personal level, I've already made this transition. When I look for leadership, I immediately look to see what Pritzker, Walz, Beshear, Wu, Mamdani, etc., are saying before anyone in Congress. More Democrats should do the same until Schumer and Jeffries are gone.
I don't think I said a single thing about an election more than three years away.
Mamdani in primary run 1. offered specific, memorable policies on economic issues 2. forcefully attacked Trump's authoritarianism, particularly ICE raids in NYC. D.C. Dem leadership 1. offers vague, non-specific ideas on econ 2. calls Trump's actions distractions.
Agreed.
Yes. Yes. Yes. The solution to education polarization is for Dems to campaign more effectively to non-college voters, not dismissing the important insights we get from academics, activists and researchers. But this is ideological. Many centrist Dems oppose the policies that research points to.
Plenty of Dems like Crockett and Warren are also not falling into the distraction trope. But they don't have much actual power and at the end of the day, congressional Dems have chosen Jeffries and Schumer as their leaders and representatives.
It also might be worth thinking about Pritzker, Newsom (on his good days), Michelle Wu and other state/local figures when we think of "Democrats." Those officials are speaking to the moment and in many cases have more actual power than Jeffries/Schumer. I should more time amplifying them.
This is good advice and I should follow it myself!
If we are seriously facing dictatorship (and we are), this is more useful advice. Perhaps emphasizing bipartisanship is useful in swing areas. But so often this language is used by Dems in blue areas. It is hard to have a mobilized opposition when the official opposition constantly demobilizes.
Recirculating this from my colleague @alexshephard.bsky.social on why downplaying things as distractions and stunts is problematic.
Their constant use of the word distraction suggests there is a memo or polling that calling something a distraction is approved by 70% of Americans. (I have not seen that data myself.) The problem is deploying troops to DC and Chicago is scary and dangerous--and distraction is a minimizing word.
I suspect Third Way is aware that most Democratic politicians already don't use these terms. But they want to 1. force people like AOC and Mamdani in very blue areas to sound like Manchin and Slotkin 2. Imply left-leaning academics and intellectuals aren't worth listening to.
What I really want to see is the memo where they told everyone in the party to use the word "distraction" as often as possible.
We may disagree. I think it's on tv because the mainstream media, Dem leaders and even some in left-media (Morning Joe) wrongly think that Dems are losing in part because progressives have too much influence. This memo, sadly, reflects thinking among liberal elites---so deserved some real coverage.
Because he is very centrist and Third Way is very centrist. If you think of Third Way (and many in the center-left camp) as pushing policy views through electoral analysis, then everything they do makes more sense.
Thanks. But I think @gelliottmorris.com, @monicapotts.bsky.social, @annamaria.bsky.social, @bencasselman.bsky.social and a bunch of others are doing fantastic work. I am sad to see one prominent 538 alum spends so much time bashing academia because scholars do work that don't align with his views.
I appreciate this analysis. But this debate can't be won with data alone. Third Way wants to 1. push Democratic pols to the right 2. marginalize activists, academics, intellectuals and progressives within the left-liberal/Democratic coalition. So defending the ideas behind these terms is vital.
newrepublic.com/article/1994...
"What’s missing and desperately needed is these events being connected to one another and presented collectively and aggressively by the media, the Democratic Party, and other prominent institutions as one megastory: Trump’s attempt to become America’s dictator." newrepublic.com/article/1994...
newrepublic.com/article/1994...
I love this headline because, yes, Nick Clegg is clearly a monster himself. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Stop talking about crime. This is an occupation. Call it an occupation. Trump is pursuing a tyrannical military occupation of the District of Columbia, using a fake emergency as an excuse.
DEMOCRATS: 1. THE WAY TO MOVE PUBLIC OPINION IS TO ATTRACT ATTENTION 2. THE WAY OT ATTRACT ATTENTION IS TO AMPLIFY GENUINE CONFLICT AND REAL CRISIS 3. THE MILITARY OCCUPATION OF WASHINGTON, D.C. IS A GENUINE CONFLICT AND A REAL CRISIS
Former CFPB director Rohit Chopra says the Trump administration has stopped basically all oversight of businesses "I think when people saw the front row of the inauguration—all of the tech barons and others—it just raised so many questions of who really controls Washington." trib.al/zQQv8ym
Important thought from @krforde.bsky.social. newrepublic.com/article/1994...
"There’s plainly a major escalation underway in President Donald Trump’s use of law enforcement to persecute his perceived enemies and entrench his authoritarian power," writes @gregsargent.bsky.social. Important piece. newrepublic.com/article/1994...
"You cannot have the rise and consolidation of authoritarian power without some type of news media mobilization in support of that project," says @krforde.bsky.social.
Slotkin, in a recent interview with Krystal Ball, implied the pro-Gaza protesters care less about the issue now that Biden is out of office. Her argument itself is silly and wrong. Perhaps she came up with that herself. But I saw this talking point bubble up in centrist pundit circles weeks before.
Maybe I am not saying this clearly. You read Matt not because he is setting Dem center-left strategy but because center-left Dem strategy is "be centrist, punch left, talk about 'kitchen table issues" and he justifies it bluntly. They repeat his language; he helps me understand their perspective.
But since Jeffries and Schumer aren't going to openly debate their strategies with rank and file Dems, debating Matt and Third Way is the best proxy you will get. My guess is "The Argument" will become the place to learn what Buttigieg/Shapiro/center-left 2028 candidate X thinks before they say it.
It is useful to follow Yglesias and Third Way. They are not that powerful themselves, but they say out loud what many Dem lawmakers, strategists and many pundits say and think in private. (I know these people!) Third Way's list of banned words/terms is what the center-left was already doing.
Matt is a writer trying to make his points. Like me. What was unique, particularly in 2021-2022, was that the center-left wing of the party, including some on Biden's team, didn't want to slam progressives but wanted it known that progressives were the party's problem. He tapped into that market.
Correct. I was not reading him closely until a senior White House person I was talking back in 2021 quoted Matt in our conversation. And then I started noticing that whatever Dem strategists told me seemed straight from Slow Boring.
"States can pass legislation that funds public media in their states. There can be coalitions among different states to build different kinds of public media that have reach beyond the state level and local level," says @krforde.bsky.social. newrepublic.substack.com/p/pro-democr...
"What DEI means, at the day, is creating space for everyone in the democratic project," says @krforde.bsky.social, a journalism professor @umassamherst.bsky.social who also serves as her department's dean for equity and inclusion. newrepublic.substack.com/p/pro-democr...
It's just - i would endorse the popular young Democratic candidate for mayor of the biggest city in the United States when his opponents are a Republican goofball, a corrupt lunatic on the Turkish government payroll, and Donald Trump's little buddy and fellow sex pest.
Leave right/wrong aside. I don’t get the endgame of not endorsing Mamdani. He’s going to win, and the holdouts are going to look stupid and be discredited. Just get on the train!
What I want is for journalists and progressives to start calling Mamdani what he is: an FDR democrat. Ask Schumer, Jeffries, and Gillibrand (et. al.): Why do you hate FDR-style policies?
Honestly I’m very glad Jeffries and other Democrats refuse to endorse Zohran. The more out of touch they are, the more ammo we have to take them down at a time when Dem voters are sick and tired of the feckless establishment.
I think progressive CANDIDATES probably need to do that. Mamdani's earnest, optimistic tact is making Jeffries look extra dumb. I don't think progressive voters on Bluesky or Twitter or at town halls need to police their tone.
This is exactly right. I’ve seen too many people dismiss the DC takeover as a stunt while ignoring all the brown people thrown into the back of vans without any investigation or probable cause.
"It's fine to call it a stunt. What isn't fine is to use that as a minimizing tactic, to be like, 'this doesn't matter.' In DC, it certainly matters to the delivery driver who is jumped by 14 heavily armed ICE agents," says @alexshephard.bsky.social. newrepublic.com/article/1992...
The Democratic establishment's aggressive shunning of Mamdani is the latest illustration of party leaders' bad judgement. Jeffries in particular is showing himself not as coalition leader but a champion of the center-left wing and can't be trusted going forward. newrepublic.com/article/1992...
newrepublic.com/article/1992...
