77.3 million U.S. adults in 2024 voted for retribution. Short USA.
My dad still calls me a stock broker. Atlanta|Georgia|USA|Spaceship Earth
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77.3 million U.S. adults in 2024 voted for retribution. Short USA.
An anti-war (pro-Palestine) protest on Peachtree Road in Buckhead (Atlanta) this morning. Hearing a number of car horns in support of the message.
America in decline because 28% of US *adults* decided a rapi$t & insurrectionist was their preferred choice for President.
A client living in D.C. said the last time she felt unsafe was January 6, 2021.
I wasn’t much of a drinker before GLP-1, but now have no desire to consume alcohol. I paid $30 for a martini in Paris a few weeks ago and drank $1 of it.
Adding gold leaf to the White House and spending $200 million on a ballroom is not the behavior of a man looking to move out on 20 January 2029. Expect Insurrection 3.0* *Insurrection 1.0 was Bush/Gore, 2.0 was January 6th
F1: Le film "Si la dernière chose que je fais est de conduire cette voiture, je prendrai ce volant." Magnifique!
Worst: 2000: Bush/Gore (Insurrection 1.0) 2001: 9/11 (1/3 of adults lost their minds) 2003: Tax cuts & desert wars 2016: End of American exceptionalism 2020: COVID (1/3 adults lost their minds) Best: 2008: Obama 2011: Initial investment in TSLA 2012: Obama 2013: Got married 2022: Bought the dip
The US imported $5.4b worth of Swiss watches in 2024. US importers of *new* Swiss watches will pay Trump’s 39% tariff. The response from Trump-aligned watch AD’s & resellers on social media is as expected. Their customers will [happily] pay more for a new Rolex, Patek, AP, or Omega. 🙃
Sit in an outdoor cafe only one half block from a main city thoroughfare in Paris or London and you’ll be surrounded by transportation, but speaking softly to your friends & family. It’s only going to get quieter as we quickly transition from the internal combustion engine.
Long UK, Europe, China Rationale: Quiet cities After 2 weeks in London/Paris for me & 3 for a friend back from China the prevalence of electric cars, trucks, bikes, motorcycles, vans, & buses has made the greatest cities audibly quieter. Smart gov’t incentives = results
Explains why a significant portion of the 77.3 million U.S. *adults* (28% of all U.S. *adults* in 2024) voted for a rapist and insurrectionist.
There are 11 ’Five Guys’ restaurant locations in Paris and 39 throughout France. Every time I walk by one they are packed. Which of the founders fell in love with Paris?
We spotted many EV cars, vans, taxis, Uber, and transit busses in London. In certain areas they’re so prevalent the streets are quiet. A notable number of curbside EV charging options. I was happy to spot a BYD store in a very posh neighborhood and saw plenty of BYDs in the wild.
Why I’m long China stocks and bullish about China’s future.
I witnessed the most American thing last night. My neighbor drove one of his two Porsche 800 feet to the steak house on our street.
Meanwhile, cultivated meat price declines mirror the downward trend seen in consumer technology. The future is cell-based agriculture.
An American friend from Atlanta is in China for the next few weeks teaching Pilates, a growing fitness trend popular with young & affluent Chinese. I receive 12 AM EDT texts of Chinese EVs, personal eVTOL, HSR, delivery robots, driverless cars, & images of life in the year 2035.
I know a GenXer who recently purchased an Audemars Piguet Royal Oak super clone for ~$1K. He could easily afford the authentic version for $35K MSRP (assuming he could find an AP at retail). The super clone looks great. Unless you’re a ‘watch guy’ it is difficult to tell the difference.
On Sunday I removed too many discarded cans of Michelob Ultra from the water and shoreline of Lake Oconee.
Questionable Tesla Model 3 modifications spotted in Atlanta.
Spotted a BrightDrop Zevo 600 with FedEx livery in Atlanta. •600+ cubic feet of cargo room •250 miles of range
This is a storyline in ‘Mountainhead’
A client lost his 80 year old wife and 55 year old daughter this month. We talked for hours on Tuesday. Hug your loved ones.
I spent last week in Cozumel, Mexico SCUBA diving & resort management mentioned fewer American tourist YoY (US tourists to Cancun was down 7% (Jan-May). I experienced the same during a February dive trip to Belize. Most of the American’s I met work in tech (AI), finance, healthcare, or retired.
I’m dreading the number 50 next year. I don’t look or feel 50 but it’s a hard number to wrap my brain around.
Don’t look up: Burning hydrocarbons in a helicopter to drop plastic eggs made from hydrocarbons on the heads of the generation that will struggle to live on an increasingly inhabitable planet because of the current generations love affair with hydrocarbons.
Returned 1 of our 2 Tesla’s today. •6 Cybertrucks for sale (4 unsold due to $100k+ price tag) •Model 3/Y unavailable until July •Counted 22 cars on the lot •10 AM on a Wednesday but there was one couple in for a test drive (Decatur, GA)
77.3 million *adults* voted for a crime family.
Because Trump leaks like a sieve.
Age 60+ wealthy people I know aren’t buying vacation properties because they rarely use the ones they own/owned and don’t want to limit their travel destinations to ‘one’ mountain community and ‘one’ beach community. A lot of underutilized vacation homes out there.
Sunset landing at LGA made the Delta flight delay acceptable.
I spent a few hours on Thursday with newer associates (ages 21-25) at Putt Shack. ~15 minutes answering questions about markets, economy, tech, tariffs. Top questions… •Was Trump 1.0 was like this? (chaos, uncertainty, drama, 12 AM Tweets) •What was it like when Obama was POTUS? (They were in HS)
A rep from an Atlanta-based mega-cap home improvement retailer told me store employees will bolt for a $1/hour increase in comp.
U.S. brain drain: A college graduate worked for the Peace Corps until DOGE cut funding for USAID leaving her stranded in Africa After 2024 election she has no desire to live in the US She called to request a 529 Savings Plan distribution to pay for graduate school in the UK
Bipedal robots will replace humans in roles currently experiencing labor shortages or too dangerous: •Home health care assistant •Certain firefighting scenarios •Chemical plants •Agriculture •Warehouses Outsourcing tasks to robots frees humans to engage in more productive, enjoyable & skilled work.
My evening at Dyer & Dyer Volvo in Atlanta: •17 Tesla trade-ins on the lot •Nearly all TSLA trade-ins ‘underwater’ including 2024 models •Offering $1K ‘Tesla Takeover’ discount + $7,500 EV credit •Dealership moves ~250 Volvo’s/mo •Fully-electric EX90 w/ LiDAR was 😍 Brie leased a 2025.5 XC90 PHEV
We’re in the process of ending our two Tesla leases and shopping for alternatives. Every dealership mentioned the number of Tesla trade-ins on their lots. I never thought I’d see “tariff-free inventory” Ads from automakers.
@billinportland.bsky.social 👏
I’m leaning toward a dysfunctional GOP not passing a bill and reverting back to the 2017 tax code. Estate attorneys, life insurance agents, wealth advisors will be busy in 4Q funding SLATs & insurance strategies to prepare for a reduction in estate tax exemption from $13.9m to $7m in 2026.
Today’s comments from a Texas land man: “My friends in oil/gas are not happy with Trump” “[Trump] has no idea what he’s doing” “[Trump] lies through his teeth” “Last year everyone was vacationing in Europe, but w/ $50 oil everyone is staying home” “Feels like we’re already in a recession”
I’m not surprised. Read the comments to Kemp’s Tweets since the 2020 election and you’ll realize MAGA despises him.
2011: Purchased Tesla Roadster #1172 and first lot of TSLA 2016: Model S 2019: Model 3 2021: Model Y 2022: Model 3 2024: Tesla Powerwalls & Starlink 2025: 2 Tesla leases expire this summer and we’re replacing with other EVs. Sold 99% of TSLA position.
Went to a Land Rover dealership to look at a plug-in hybrid to replace one of our Tesla’s (lease ends <1 mo) •When given the reason for switching brands (Elon Musk’s behavior) the sales rep said, “I hear that a lot” •Future LR imported vehicles will reflect the high tariff-adjusted price
We’re a month away from Waymo in Atlanta. In a few years it will be feasible to abandon vehicle ownership and take robotaxis to most destinations.
Nothing beats a physical copy of the Sunday New York Times. NYT’s Style Magazine on the 27th, ‘J Is for JAPAN’ is a keeper. NYTimes.com/series/j-is-for-japan
I searched 50 years of newspaper articles for “bowling ball test” and only found applications for mattresses and a 90s political cartoon.
Except for Rolex the secondary/grey market for watches priced $3,000+ is down YTD through 20 April 2024. A discretionary purchase I track to gauge the health of the affluent consumer. Source: watchcharts.com/articles/p/8...
Thank you. My dad mentioned his octogenarian neighbor hasn’t visited her central Florida condo for >20 years but pays her HOA/taxes. I wonder how many homes are truly ‘unoccupied.’
It’s been China’s century since 9/11 when 40% of Americans lost their damn mind.
A metaphor for U.S. trade policy. (NatGeo is one of the few physical media publications we read)
@mikesimonsen.bsky.social Has anyone studied the ‘15.1 million vacant homes’ in the U.S.? Seems like one way to solve the housing affordability & supply problem.
A nice addition for next Monday’s ‘Earnings & Observations’ email to my team.
My wife attended the same boarding school as RFK Jr, Millbrook School. He was expelled in 1971 As a student he took his pet falcon (Brie kept her horse on campus) to the farm behind the school to hunt rats feasting on the carcasses of dead cows. This pod has stories at 16m:38s tinyurl.com/5yrbf6tc
My compensation has increased YTD but I don’t *feel* like spending money. Hoarding cash Paid down margin Delayed luxury purchases Increased charitable giving Reducing mortgage principal Decided against installing a pool Amazon boycott highlighted how much we spent on unnecessary dopamine hits.
Spotted a couple of Rivian’s this morning. Impressive lineup of current and planned vehicles. I reserved an R2 for 2026 delivery but I’m probably going to terminate my Tesla lease early for an R1S.
It’s going to cost me ~$5k to terminate my Tesla lease, but the Rivian R1S is worth it.
Like throwing ketchup on a wall to see which tariff narrative sticks: •Restoring manufacturing •Protecting US industry •Fentanyl •Replacing the income tax •Pressure neighbors to secure borders •Pressure countries to lower tariffs •Getting countries to ⬆️ defense spend •IP theft •Illegal subsidies
Kids (neighbors) these days using a belay to climb a tree. Back in my day kids free-climbed barefoot…in dead of winter.
All of the sudden conservative men I’ve know for 20 yrs care about the compensation & well-being of Foxconn workers. Avg Foxconn line worker in China assembling iPhones makes equivalent of $36k/yr Avg Foxconn production supervisor:$70k/yr Avg Apple salary in the USA: $143k/yr
Wednesday at 11:45 AM EDT I presented an economic/policy/market update to ~50 employees at a FL-based consumer goods importer. I referenced your comment about Trump finger snapping. I left and returned to my hotel. [Trump snapped his👌finger] Met the group for libations & they paid my bar tab!
Met with a consumer products company in FL (~50 🇺🇸 employees, imports finished goods from 🇨🇳) CEO is a well-read Dem & prepared for tariffs before election. Said 9 in 10 potential hires asked about the company’s tariff strategy because the candidates were recently let go because of Trump trade war.
The White House capitulated to the most powerful entity on Earth…the bond market.
Mom raised cash months ago because mom is the smartest investor I know.
Spoke with clients over the weekend and this morning. 2/3 asked if it was a good time to deploy idle cash. I appreciate their optimistic sentiment but holding cash at 4.35% yield feels like the right place to be.
BTC $30k and the crypto bros will be at the Capitol for Insurrection 2.0 and demanding a 2024 election recount.
25 years working in finance and not one client has asked to invest with Pershing.
We [Americans] live in the safest and most prosperous time in human history.
The ‘Watches & Wonders’ trade show was in Geneva last week. I know a few well-funded watch guys, but tariffs & recession risk suppressed any desire to spend money. 1-year ChronoPulse Watch Index:
What happened… 77.3 million U.S. *adults* (just 28% of all adults) voted for a rapist and insurrectionist.
Heard from a client in Houston looking to buy a new Range Rover. Inventory at his local Land Rover dealer is selling fast as customers front run tariffs. Dealer making bank, but warned it will be short lived as new inventory will reflect higher prices.
Just secured a $3.3m 10-year ARM at 5 1/8 for a client. (Top 0.1% wealth is nervous but still consuming)
One missed Social Security payment combined with the S&P 500 index falling to ~4700 and the top 10% will join the riot.
[play world’s tiniest violin] A lot of consternation today with the 7-figure income finance sector crowd as they begin to understand the dangers of the guy in the White House currently out on bail for one of his many crimes.
Costco sold >$2 billion worth of gold coins & bars in 2024. It looks like Costco sold out of all gold bars/coins. Only silver bars available. www.costco.com/s?keyword=Go...
Traders finally asked ChatGPT to summarize Chapter 26 of “Project 2025” and discovered Trump/MAGA/Heritage Foundation plans to reshape the U.S. economy by 1. Starting a global a trade war 2. Punish companies that do business with & invest in China 3. Stop all trade w/China w/i 4-years
I’ve sent screenshots of your post to a lot of people struggling with an unrecognizable America culture.
This AM at the gym a friend sarcastically asked if I enjoyed, “Liberation Day.” The person next to us asked, “What is Liberation Day?” (Kinda wish I was blissfully ignorant)
It was satisfying to see expired tags (JAN 25) on the fleet of expensive cars/trucks at the home of my brother’s insufferable Ponte Vedra Beach, FL neighbor. Guy blew up his construction business, marriage, and is now selling courses on how to be ‘a real man.’
The White Lotus’ Belinda should ask Greg/Gary for at least $10 million (~2% of his net worth). I’d push for $25m then anonymously report him to INTERPOL.
Long $BYDDF since 2015 because they manufacture exceptional vehicles & battery tech. I wouldn’t mind paying the 125% tariff but importing one is nearly impossible.
28% of all U.S. adults (age 18+) voted for this. [77.3 million votes out of 271 million adults] America in decline.
Spotted a Tesla Supercharger in Ashburn, GA tagged with, “Freefall.” I’ve only driven Tesla’s since June 2011. Supercharging today felt different compared to the old days.
Because of firearms not a day goes by when I don’t think about the safety of my niece and nephews at school. When traveling abroad I never think about gun violence. I recently bought a Bleeding Control kit for my office in case someone gets shot.
77.3 million people voted for fascism. Never forget. Never forgive.
A friend just returned from 10 days in China teaching Pilates. He was asked the following gun-related questions by his Chinese students: 1. Have you fired a gun? 2. Have you been in a gun fight? 3. Do you own a gun? 4. If so, why do you own a gun? (Very low crime rate, virtually no firearm deaths)
77.3 million adults (28% of all U.S. adults age 18+) voted for unserious people to run our Government. Short USA until 1/2029
Electronic billboard in Brookhaven with a message from the Canadian government: “Tariffs are a tax on your grocery bill” 🇨🇦
Add to your barber shop *vibes* survey… My barber raises hens at his Dunwoody home and gives me a half dozen eggs during my bi-weekly cuts.
Trump is partly responsible for deaths related to COVID-19 Musk, Trump and every Republican congressman is fully responsible for deaths in the USA & abroad because of unlawful spending cuts.
My contacts at Blackstone Private Credit Fund say there is no slowdown of potential borrowers calling BX for credit. BCRED Class I annualized distribution rate is 10.4%. Retail clients enjoy healthy monthly cash flow.
Self-deportation of our best and brightest: Second client to call asking for a list of 529 Saving Plan approved international colleges & universities. I know three college-age women seeking higher education abroad instead of spending the next 1,401 days living in the USA.
Bessent is wealthy, politically connected, and disconnected from much of society. Similar to many older men I know in the finance industry, I doubt he spends time on self-reflection or thinking about anyone other than himself & immediate family. ‘Ends justify the means’ type personality.
Received a 6:45 AM text from an acquaintance with a link to the All-In podcast interview with US Secretary of the Treasury Bessent. 😑
Rubes & Sycophants
Nature healed quickly after the March 2020 pandemic lockdown. With few people driving vehicles Atlanta smog disappeared. Top 📸: Before lockdown my flight instructor used to say, “Keep the [airplane] wings level with the smog line.” Bottom 📸: After lockdown the smog line disappeared.
December 2018 vibes. Trump shut the government down 20% stock selloff (Nov-Dec) Lines a food banks for Gov’t employees Mnuchin calls heads of banks to report, “ample liquidity”
