I think it'll be an oil blockade
I think it'll be an oil blockade
Thrombectomy
I got fired from a shitty warehouse job the day he almost died of covid because I kept checking my phone too much
Thrombectomy for whatever clot is in his legs
70% surgery 20% Venezuela 10% it happened imo
He's having surgery or it's a coup in Venezuela
This has to be the worst year in history to be a postlib intellectual tbh. Spent all those years reading Schmitt and Sorel and you finally get a chance to destroy the Cathedral and instead you have to watch your sundowning pedophile leader announce he's sending the Marines to kill the Ninja Turtles
I don't think this administration is smart enough to thread the needle between "tilt the election enough to change the outcome" and "don't tilt the election so much you start a civil war"
Imagining the paradise we'd be in if Southern whites voted the way that West Coast whites do
Ernie King is going to come back from the dead and beat Pete Hegseth with a rubber hose
They're generating an excuse to suspend habeas corpus when they lose all these cases
The GOP spelled out everything they were going to do in this term in Project 2025 and voters didn't care. It's just not how they think about politics or elections.
Voters clearly don't give a shit about platforms
always interesting to me that these people to reach to european reactionaries for resources to think about the united states. almost as if they are trying impose ideas foreign to our political traditions
I can't see an endgame to their constant failure to get juries on board with their project other than suspending habeas corpus
I'm reading it less as impunity and more as desperation. They can see the polling, they know they're likely to lose Congress next year and see that as an existential risk to their project. They'd rather throw the dice and risk civil war than accept a hostile Congress with subpoena power.
GOP has been eating the Dems lunch in Spanish-language media for years, in part because they can present a radically different image of their party in each language.
This is exactly the kind of thing Stancil is talking about when he says just being on Twitter makes you more right wing
The easiest offramp is a certain growing clump of clotted blood cells somewhere deep in Trump's sapheous vein.
whole damn presidency is just b-roll
Negotiating with Trump about anything seems like the most exhausting process imaginable
Ken Klippenstein would never push a Dems Bad narrative in bad faith
I'm sympathetic to that view but this is going to get a ton of media coverage because of the referendum component. Polling suggests it's gonna be competitive.
Shapiro and Whitmer have split legislatures with GOP control. Walz doesn't have control until Hoffman's seat is filled, by which point it will probably be too late. Wes Moore can do one, but he only has one R to eliminate.
I'm never going to stop giving anyone shit for announcing their intention to abstain in 2028. My city was just under military occupation for two months. My neighbors went into hiding. ICE killed someone 15 minutes away from where I'm sitting right now. Abstaining is a vote for that to continue.
Pritzker doesn't really have much juice left, IL is already quite gerrymandered. New York iirc has some pretty bad procedural obstacles (even more than CA) that makes it impossible for the lines to be changed until 28 (and I don't think Hochul is a serious threat to Newsom anyway).
It's hard for me to see him losing the primary if he personally erases 4-5 GOP House members tbh. I hate on Newsom plenty, I just don't have to do it on here because everyone here hates him too lol.
At least some degree of this is the media being mostly owned by billionaires who want a powerful fascist daddy
I suspect most of the people announcing that they would abstain in 2028 for reasons xyz are bullshitting though.
I'm not going to tell anyone they should trust Gavin Newsom. Abstaining in 2028 is a disaster though. That's surrendering on *every* issue. I understood doing it over Gaza. Tens of thousands of people were dead. I don't really get doing it over a podcast.
You have no idea what I am or am not doing elsewhere
I will certainly be paying close attention to how he addresses the issue in the future though.
I don't think it's irrelevant at all, as evidenced by the fact that Newsom has signed pro-trans legislation repeatedly and has taken no material actions against trans rights even after that podcast.
I just take people literally when they say they won't vote in the 2028 general election.
What makes you think I don't want to shame Newsom's anti-trans positions? I've said multiple times I won't vote for him in the primary.
That's shitty and I won't vote for him in the primary because of it, but I don't think that rises to the level of "he agrees that trans people shouldn't participate in public life" I certainly don't think it's enough to justify abstaining in a general election.
Anyone who acts in a way that makes a JD Vance presidency more likely is dead to me, yes. This regime in the hands of a younger man means 20 years of fascism.
You know, the real enemy.
We do? The rank and file of the party? Like we did with Obama and gay marriage? Assuming that he's beyond your ability to influence is just defeatism.
Kern county is Republican
I am not going to vote for Newsom in the primary and neither should you.
Sacramento needs to step into this process
Texas has way less procedural obstacles. Newsom has to actually go to the voters to get his done.
that's what a governor does? and he actively supported and defended the school pronouns law in particular
Yes I know, but Musk drew attention to the law and amplified the political battle over it.
Can you grab he specific quote?
The school pronoun law caused a huge local political fight and was allegedly the reason why Elon Musk left the state
I don't like his stance on the sports stuff but the widespread bsky believe that Gavin is axiomatically anti-trans seems completely fabricated to me
2019- signed law granting "x" gender markers and requiring LGBT issues be included in police training 2022- signed law protecting trans families who come to CA from other states from being harassed 2024- signed law banning schools from doxxing kids using different pronouns
leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTe... SB 132, signed by Gavin Newsom, made it easier for trans prisoners to be housed in accordance with their gender identity.
I can't see how you got that impression at all, these guys are incompetent losers
I think it's absurd to believe that Gavin Newsom wants to make it "illegal" for trans people to exist in public (and I say that as someone who thinks he's a shitbag)
what the fuck are you talking about
Attorney General
He's not getting 0.2% in Iowa if he personally erases 4 GOP House members
Anyone who abstains in 2028 for any reason is dead to me
Anyone who abstains in 2028 for any reason is dead to me
The progressives I know are all 100% in favor of gerrymandering
tbf Trump isn't a WASP either
They're also giving a lot of critical jobs to stupid/lazy people who can't do them well
I think paradoxically people can sense that the regime isn't actually consolidated and that acts as a disarming effect
Occurs to me that Trump's entire regime consolidation strategy is to persuade everyone through displays of force that the regime is already consolidated and there's no point in resisting. Which I don't think will work, but also shows how important public acts of noncompliance are.
fwiw I think the events of the last week have basically locked this in
one of the many things that makes looking for a job in 2025 pure torture is now being obligated to pick up unknown numbers
Do they hate working? Is it their gutted education systems? or is it just the meth?
I need someone with the courage to ask why red states are so fucking poor
You know who didn't? Bolsonaro and Yoon Suk Yeol
Same thing with Putin and Erdogan. They had broad popular support for years.
I think that's true of American elites but not the public at large
The "no true bill" on this one is gonna hit like crack
Reddit is already 100% Gavinpilled.
At their level of capacity and competence I think they'd need like a decade to get that entrenched
Those kinds of uprisings don't happen overnight, they take time to build- and a spark, which we haven't really had yet.
I mean we literally just saw it in 2020
You need armed gangs to trump unarmed mobs, which the opposition here absolutely can have in the right circumstances.
Americans (especially white ones) have so little experience with authoritarianism that the concept we're supposed to be afraid of the security apparatus or military doesn't even register.
because they got trapped at a Home Depot by 50 teenagers on skateboards
I expect the endgame of this is they're going to either try to take away jury trials for federal crimes or suspend habeas corpus. Those are basically their only options for getting around the jury problem.
The Nazis had a huge pool of insane and destitute WW1 veterans to build their security apparatus with.
turns out it's in fact super hard to do regime consolidation in a country with fragmented political authority where you have only 40% popular support (and most of that support comes from people who are too lazy and secure to take goon jobs)
This alongside the DC and LA grand juries rejecting bills left and right does not bode well for the authoritarian takeover
They're gonna try to take away jury trials before this is over
on a felony!
Sure but Valadao has been voicing that unhappiness and they'd basically be voting him out of office
I think they think troops are more sympathetic to the Viewer At Home so they want protestors to attack them
I don't really see why a GOP voter in CA would vote for a measure designed to spite the GOP
I disagree, only Nixon could have gone to China etc. They would swallow anything he told them to
I don't think they'll get there for POTUS anytime soon but the Senate races will at least be plausible
Why are they making memes about a guy who humiliated them
Blue Texas is gonna hit like crack
Or at least not until the Logan Paul campaign of 2036
My deepest fear when Trump took office was that he would pivot on immigration and do amnesty and lock in Latinos as loyal GOP voters for a generation like Dems did with black voters and the CRA
I suspect a fair number of Trump 2024 voters will never vote again
Creates a tough political problem for the admin's other goals if they're suddenly sensitive to the political whims of swing voters in California
You really aren't grasping what I'm saying here
I live here too dumbass
600 aint gonna cut it
My point is that sending ICE in makes the GOP more likely to lose the referendum, so they might hesitate to send ICE in
(and yeah they totally are lol)
I feel like you didn't grasp what I was saying, unless you're trying to say that the referendum is such a sure thing to pass that the GOP won't even try to win it