She/her #BirdSky moveobjects hater
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They would go after Mrvan but it's not as easy as it looks, he's a pretty big overperformer and the bluest areas are close the the shore and the border with Illinois, quite far away from bordering districts.
Indianapolis suburbs did but the rest of the state is making up for it.
attending on online course rn and i need to wake up before 7 am on weekends for it ...
and to what places in those states?
What in red states tho? Should we just assume that all the dem seats in those are gone?
why didn't he do that in Sioux City few days ago
I would be more generous here if he hasn't spent last several weeks saying that redistricting is on the table, just to wait out and do nothing until it became impossible (filling deadline approaching). It's pretty obvious he's just saying stuff to court the resister vote.
He and his people also know that dems bedwet themselves every time he does so he will just keep going.
It's not just internet randos who are spreading this shit anymore. If it'll keep going, dems will do fine scaring and suppressing their own voters while having media portray them as alarmist loons. bsky.app/profile/atru...
It's only really Georgia gov race where he is going with insane MAGA over more normal choices in a competitive seat. Arizona kinda too if we count double endorsement.
People keep saying it but he's not really supporting primary challenges anymore, except for Massie and Cassidy. He even wanted Kemp and Sununu to run despite past conflicts with them. Wouldn't be shocked if he endorses Cornyn eventually. It does look like he somewhat learned his lesson after 2022.
Population, size, political system, electoral system, demographics, government approval polls to name a few. These alone amount to meaningful differences.
State was 6% redder than the country in 2012-2020 but only 1,7% in 2024. So the answer is yes.
What poll numbers are dems even losing, except meaningless approvals? Cause even hack rw pollsters have them leading or at least tied at GB.
just thinking about the fact that in few months, figure skaters will be trending here and a lot of people with thousands of followers who know next to nothing about the sport will be talking about them...
And cheek acupuncture as well
Umm, birb? This isn't a perch #budgies
“Over the past 20 years, Paris has undergone a major physical transformation, trading automotive arteries for bike lanes, adding green spaces and eliminating 50,000 parking spaces. Part of the payoff has been invisible — in the air itself.” Leadership, strategy, real action, common sense. #Paris
there are at least couple other people who might run if Mills doesn't, so he wouldn't have primary for himself
yeah, but that's not what he said then, he portrayed himself as a maverick who might as well run as an independent( and in this state, he could)
considering that he was saying the opposite only days before, i wonder what changed
Hinson running would mean open house race so I'm not sure it does. Open senate, governor and 3/4 of house seats being competitive really raises stakes in the state.
(Former) Governors have proven track record of winning/overperforming so it's an obvious choice to try to recruit no matter the age. And Collins is only few years younger than Mills and Maine is the oldest state.
Compared to two term governor that's nobody. Both parties pretty much always try to run governors for competitive senate races , they proved themselves they can win statewide, there's no conspiracy here.
The other guy who entered the race earlier also raised a lot of money after almost no media coverage compared to this guy. Dem donors just see "I'm running against Susan Collins" and throw money at them.
Winning this senate seat is much more important than any of that. And 2020 proved that running nobody against Collins is a bad move. Mills can literally step down second after she's sworn in for all I care.
#budgies
If you want it done right, you have to do it yourself😂
Smol... 🐹🥕😍 #bluesky #animals #nature
Eric Harris wrote in his journal about hijacking planes and crashing them into NYC.
Obsessed
what the fuck is a lububu
thinking about Spanish men's volleyball team, who became euro champions in 2007 after winning against R*ssia (in R*ssia!), and then couldn't even advance to top 8 at any other tourney, few years after that they almost completely disappeared from major intl comps
Florida has like 7 republicans in the 10-20% range and if they try to mess with the map further, could be more. But it's Florida lol. Georgia and NC have some potential but would likely take till 2028 (except NC11).
Making them wear high-visibility vests over camo is such a good joke you couldn’t write it
She is yet to say officially but there was a lot of rumors/speculation couple months back that she's retiring. Her fundraising was also not great in Q2. WH was even starting to push Hinson to run. I don't know if anything changed tho.
Dem senate candidates tend to overperform the environment/fundamentals in recent elections so I don't think nationwide +10 is necessary. The candidate needs to be great campaigner tho.
One moment it's dooming about racedep, other time it's predicting brown people will be prevented from voting for their beloved democrats in overwhelming numbers. These people need to pick a lane, and do research about current competitive districts, their composition and geographical locations.
Only if republicans are still fully in power in those states to do it tho. Georgia and NC combined could net dems 5-10 seats from where they are rn.
that's the stuff #budgies
In 2012 Georgia was 14% redder than Pennsylvania, in 2024 just 0.5%.
And which people will they prevent from voting? Cause their support is not that clear cut between demos.
Why aren't they sending them to Sioux City in Iowa where their legislative supermajority is on the line in couple of days?
It will also forever be 2010's gerrymanders and electoral geography/coalitions for them.
I would wait for other polls, Emerson is very Trump friendly lately.
Early voting? But this website assured me King Donald the First of His Name banned such a thing with his royal decree.
What fascinates me how data nerds can't decide on numbers of seats. Two days ago Florida was getting 4, now is only 2? Indiana can get 2?! They would have to make almost every currently red seat be below 20% red, when they are still yet to force them to do it at all.
There's 15 seats that republicans won in 2024 by less than 5%.
3 seat gain despite the state shifting by double digit right is not "barely changing anything"
He is in the conversation rn only because of the redistricting, if they want to blame someone for it, it's Trump and Republicans who started it.
Bc you deserve it 💐 #art #budgies #flowers
I don't think she said anything like this, SC declined to hear the case cause they can't be a court of first instance here, and that was before she was even sworn in. Now two cases challenging the map are in the Dane County court. www.wpr.org/news/wiscons...
there is a new evangelical church-run coffee shop in Durham, and they really did not think through their interior design
Did Gonzalez say if he will run?
#budgies
thank you Third Way, now I will be using all of these out of spite
This is not what I was disagreeing with lmao, I disagreed with NYT map of states and what "possibilities" are. I also think they are deliberately trying to scare democrats who aren't following this stuff closely. But keep arguing with imagined poster I guess.
If you can find and read NYT article, you can also find and read all of the stuff I told you.
What do you want me to show? Filling deadlines by state? They are easy to look up. Georgia and NC 2024 results by counties? Also easy. Do I also have to prove to you that NH is a light blue state where republican can't do much to draw themselves an "easy" seat?
I'm not counting on anything, just pointing out NYT bias and/or lack of proper knowledge on these things
Technically some dem controlled states could redistrict with a court ordered map, there are some where they don't have legislative majority but have state supreme courts ( Minnesota, Pennsylvania). NY could do it that way too. These are "possibilities" too but NYT likes to scare dems into despair.
I'm talking about states highlighted on the map, it's just another example of NYT trying to scare dems who aren't following this stuff closely.
Where dos it agree with all the republican controlled states NYT mentioned?
I'm not even entertaining NH cause that one would be pure desperation lmao, +5 2024 is the best they could do while shoring up other dem district and would hurt Ayotte's reelection chances in a blue state.
It's wrong, bunch of states haven't said anything about redistricting even tho their filling deadlines are getting close. Some of these have dem governors who aren't calling special sessions. Georgia and NC can't even use 2024 numbers cause Harris had gains in many areas there.
Are chances of Wisconsin courts striking the current map that low? Cause I never see it as a possibility in these calculations, even tho it would gain democrats a safe seat and probably another lean dem one.
2022 was so unhinged, republicans couldn't pick up bunch of Trump voting districts but got several double digit Biden ones.
There's like 7 republicans in the 10-20% range, most of them near dems, who are also mostly packed in one area. I don't know how you get 4 more seats w/o making almost every republican seat in that range or even less. I know Florida drifted away, but it's not THAT red (yet at least).
Maybe making it light red <5% Trump might be a workaround with courts, it's still red but good pickup opportunity.
Wisconsin map is in the lower court rn. Maine could shore up Golden's district if Nebraska does that with NE02, especially since an EV is on the line here.
things were better when the computer lived in its own specific room and you only went in there sometimes
I'm thinking more of a LA scenario than DC.
He might try in NYC after Mamdani wins.
a doggo for a change
best asoiaf ship hands(knuckles? 💀) down
love it what comes up first when you google stannis and davos together
And in a state with a Republican governor. Idc if he's a RINO, imagine if dems take the senate by one seat but then Sanders croaks, anyone thinking Scott wouldn't appoint a Republican in this scenario needs to have their head examined.
No
3rd +10 district is the currently vacant one, right?
Cook is a joke nowadays, they had VA governor as a Toss-up until May.
Current Ohio gerrymander backfired so spectacularly, they thought they will gain 2 seats, they ended up losing one (+ another one through census). And in two light red elections at that (tho, Vance dragged them down in 2022). Curious what they will come up with now.
This would be at worse as bad as pre-2018 partisan balance of gerrymanders, and 2020 showed us that 3% popular vote margin was enough for dems to keep the house with those in place. Despite pre-2018 prophecies saying 8% might be *just* enough to flip it.
*era
Rhaegar/Lyanna portrayal/dynamic would be a no no to put it mildly, but I can ignore it and pretend it's not there, I'm good at that. We then get that ⏬ so I would be fine.
All these dynamics, Baratheon, Stark and Lannister sibs, Tullys with Baelish. So much if it as already referenced in GOT, they would have to adapt it directly, or so I chosen to believe lmao.
Since I'm lowkey back to my ASOIAF are, I'm again fantasizing about GOT direct prequel/Roberts Rebellion adaptation. After HOTD turned to be shit, I'm not deluding meself when it comes to quality but I need to see these chars when they were younger.
needs 60 votes
These are even whiter. As we all know, Jared Golden is doing everything in his power to court non-white voters lmao
8 hours is long enough for word to spread and for people who wouldn't otherwise show up to go and vote. How do you think would this play out in broad daylight with hundreds of people as witnesses? Mail voting is not the same as in-person early voting.
And split ticket voters exist too, like yay hurrah you stopped someone voting for Cuellar, what if they also wanted to vote for Paxton?
And they will do what with them? Kidnap them at a polling place with hundreds of other people in line? And they will start doing it when, on election day? What about all the people who already voted early? Or they will start early and cause a nationwide backlash that will go on for weeks?
There are also republican voters in those cities tho, more than many ruby red counties combined. And a lot of them are only lean r or swing voters and if they feel intimidated they might not show up either. All it does is dropping turnout slightly, while likely raising it elsewhere cause of backlash
And there is not much overlap between competitive senate races and house races, there's just not enough capacity to take care of both, even if they were able to predict which ones would be the tipping point.
Most of the competitive districts are mostly white and suburban/exurban/rural tho, and republicans gained with non-white voters so the possibility that they would be stopping their own is high. Not to even mention how that would motivate people who otherwise would not show up in a midterm to vote.
I already hate this season
I don't think there's anything like a first stop at SCOTUS with congressional maps, if there was, Illinois one would've been wiped out years ago. And lower courts are unlikely to be friendly to republicans here. Also, they ruled that partisan gerrymandering is fine.
Illinois, Nevada, New Mexico and Oregon dems definitely did just that, and with major dummymander risks (OR one did backfire in 2022). NY and Maryland tried but courts stopped them.
