Professor of Strategic Studies, Author, Lover of Sicily
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Hi All, Just did a Substack Live with @astroterry.bsky.social . We talk about US politics, running for the Senate in Texas, the importance of Ukrainian victory for Ukraine, and even how to take down the Kerch bridge with air power. Enjoy. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Hi All, Great new Europe Dispatch column by @alanderminna.bsky.social The attack on Poland might or might not have been an act of war--but it needs a European response. All Russian drones that enter the air space of NATO European countries should be shot down. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
It’s now been a day and a half since Russia launched a premeditated military attack on Poland, ostensibly an ally of the USA. And so far this is the only reaction of the US president. And some people still think the US will defend Europe from Russia…
Latest in @theatlantic.com . The Russian deliberate attack on Poland (and thats what it was) should have been easy for NATO to handle. However the alliance failed--and the reasons why show just how dysfunctional it has become.
Von der Leyen saying ”Europe will defend every inch of its territory” is interesting given it was supposed to be NATO that defends every inch of Allied territory (see NATO strategic concept 2022)… Given that the US probably isn’t in on that pledge anymore, this makes sense as direction of travel
As usual, @phillipspobrien.bsky.social nails it. phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/nato-state...
When will Europeans understand that Trump is actively trying to weaken them, and using NATO to make Europeans act against their own interests? He has basically turned NATO into a stalking horse to help Russia, and Europeans are helping him.
So if Russia did not attack Poland last night--can we say the Russians launched a special military operation against Poland? That cant offend anyone right....
"NATO states have no idea how to look after their own security. They cannot even call an attack, an attack." And that's where we are.
God help them as they clearly can’t help themselves
Just sent out this free post. Russia attacked Poland last night--and the NATO response indicates institutional and national failure. They were clearly not prepared, cannot even call the Russian attack an attack, and do not understand their real security concerns. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
The time for the West to start arming democratic Ukraine to the teeth and imposing crippling sanctions on fascist Russia was... over three years ago. Putin has been given time to switch his economy to a war footing. Stopping him now will be much more costly - and risky.
The main lesson from last night for Poland (indeed all NATO in CEE) should be that their defense starts in Ukraine. Imagine the results if Russians could launch a massive UAV attack on Poland from just over the border in Ukraine?
Stop blaming Elbridge Colby! An old German proverb says: The fish starts to stink at the head…
Damn, every statistician in Washington is going to be fired and replaced by RFK Jr after this.
Stop Blaming Elbridge Colby The Policies of Protecting Putin And Harming Ukraine Are Trump's
Some of the very best and most internationally renowned political scientists in Germany are at Cologne. This is a very real threat to a globally strong group.
Each time, actually, the policies are all or mostly maintained. The Pro-Putin and Anti-Ukraine policies the US is following are because of the wishes of Donald Trump. It’s important that people are honest about that.
Just sent out this post. Three times in the last two months, people have tried to blame the outrageously pro-Putin steps taken by the Trump Administration on a third level bureaucrat in the Pentagon. This has to stop. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Hi All, The Strategists is on a great but limited time kindle offer. You can get the book for only $1.99 but you need to move quickly. Here is a link. www.amazon.com/Strategists-...
The Ukrainians should keep hitting the Druzhba pipeline until Orban changes his tune
All of Russia's largest oil companies reported a collapse in profits for the first half of 2025, The Moscow Times writes.
More Russian fuckery
Hi All, The Strategists is on a great but limited time kindle offer. You can get the book for only $1.99 but you need to move quickly. Here is a link. www.amazon.com/Strategists-...
Hi All, Just released my free weekend update. The big story this week the Ukrainians keeping up their ranged campaign against Russian oil refineries and pipelines--and having strategic effect. Putin is warning Russians about shortages and Fico is making nice. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Rant! is back! Featuring a dog and squirrel on cocaine, a DNI who knows nothing about cooperation and coordination, and an analysis of the summer’s theatrics around Ukraine policy. open.substack.com/pub/alexzfin...
Russia launched 805 Shahed-type long-range drones in a single attack. Current output is about 90 per day and set to rise to at least 115 by year’s end, including with major Chinese support. 1/2
One of the most remarkable things of the last 9 months is how many Americans seem to believe the President is all powerful and Congress has no say. Actually Congress has been ineffective by choice. It has immense power if it had the courage to use it.
A gasoline crisis has begun in Russia. There is no fuel at gas stations in a number of regions, including occupied Crimea and Transbaikal (East Siberia). In the Far East, there have been serious problems with fuel availability since August 20. >>>
Also, the battle lines hardly moved--no Ukrainian collapse yet! Finally, Putin wants to live forever off the harvested organs of young, healthy people. Next time the Russians talk about using nukes--you might keep this in mind. Putin wants to live, not blow up the world.
Hi All, Just released my free weekend update. The big story this week the Ukrainians keeping up their ranged campaign against Russian oil refineries and pipelines--and having strategic effect. Putin is warning Russians about shortages and Fico is making nice. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
I blame Eibridge Colby for this. Does the President know what’s happening?
I blame Eibridge Colby for this. Does the President know what’s happening?
"Russia no longer tries to hide behind a veil of (im)plausible deniability and does not seem to care about the potential consequences of its actions [...] While important in tightening the noose around Russia's struggling economy, sanctions are clearly not sufficient to deter Moscow from escalating"
Hi All, Latest Europe Dispatch by @alanderminna.bsky.social just appeared. Russia is waging a form of (hybrid) warfare against Europe--why are people so reluctant to face it? open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
And in the USA, Barnes and Noble is doing a preorder sale and you can buy War and Power for 25% off--but only for a limited time. www.barnesandnoble.com/w/war-and-po...
Hi All, Book deals on both sides of the Atlantic for War and Power: Who Wins Wars and Why--my latest book. If you want to buy a signed first edition from the UK bookseller Toppings, you can order it from this link. www.toppingbooks.co.uk/books/philli...
Hi All, @mykolabielieskov.bsky.social and I are back with a rather delayed next episode of the Ukraine-Russia War Talk Podcast. We survey the front like, which Mykola has been visiting, and as always try to balance the doom-mongers in the analytical community www.buzzsprout.com/2279186/epis...
Very enlightening conversation. Ukraine is holding up, Europe catching up, slowly, the US too big to circumvent, should do more. Russia‘s most important frontline, as Ukraine is not giving in and Trump already an asset: European public opinion and parliaments (strengthening the populist right)
You can also access the podcast at my Substack, where there is a transcript. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
We are discuss the strategic air war in detail, and Ukrainian morale. As always, this is free and without commercials. However, if you want to support our work, please consider a donation to Come Back Alive, the brilliant Ukrainian charity savelife.in.ua/en/
Hi All, @mykolabielieskov.bsky.social and I are back with a rather delayed next episode of the Ukraine-Russia War Talk Podcast. We survey the front like, which Mykola has been visiting, and as always try to balance the doom-mongers in the analytical community www.buzzsprout.com/2279186/epis...
If European leaders believe a single word of what Trump says about giving “security guarantees” to Ukraine, they will deserve everything that comes their way. It’s all a tissue of lies to get Putin the best deal possible.
Resistance is futile!
And in the USA, Barnes and Noble is doing a preorder sale and you can buy War and Power for 25% off--but only for a limited time. www.barnesandnoble.com/w/war-and-po...
Hi All, Book deals on both sides of the Atlantic for War and Power: Who Wins Wars and Why--my latest book. If you want to buy a signed first edition from the UK bookseller Toppings, you can order it from this link. www.toppingbooks.co.uk/books/philli...
When it comes to Ukraine no one should use the phrase "trading land for peace". The reality it will be "Strengthening Russia for when they come back and attack again" That is the reality.
Hi All, Was blown away by all the responses to the Strategic Bombing and Ukraine series--so I wrote this paper after reflecting on some of the main points. In particular I try to point out differences between WWII strategic bombing and today. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
And dont get carried away by the Boots on the Ground stuff
Hi All, Was blown away by all the responses to the Strategic Bombing and Ukraine series--so I wrote this paper after reflecting on some of the main points. In particular I try to point out differences between WWII strategic bombing and today. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
How does this not end with a toxic combination of stagflation and currency depreciation? Asking for a friend
I’m no economist, but even I can see that many major western economies are on the edge of a massive debt crisis, with swelling debts, soaring interest payments needed to service those debts, and with flattening economic growth.
So this is what the USA is now under Trump. A nation which screws its democratic friends and allies by taking advantage of their Ukraine War and European fears. A disgrace. www.politico.eu/article/anto...
⬇️ POB on the massive strategic fuck up that has been Trump’s approach to India.
The US disaster with India is so profoundly stupid and venal that I have written this short and free piece about it, if you want to read more. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
And, btw, Trump having a childish fit with India has nothing to do with Russia-Ukraine and has actually already helped Putin by driving India closer to China and Russia. It was all because India would not lie on Trump's behalf and claim he settled their dispute with Pakistan.
The USA has screwed up so badly by decimating the US relationship with India because of Trump’s childish, destructive ego, that the state department is now in the process of grovelling. In the end the US will probably cave, as it has with China.
There was a very failed "breakthrough", which got a lot of airtime, until it failed. Now, there's only crickets from the analyzing community. Phillips put my thoughts to words..
Also, the last week has highlighted the very different ways the Russians and Ukrainians are undertaking strategic air operations. The Russians are targeting civilians, the Ukrainians are hitting oil refineries. And guess what--oil refineries are actually "strategic".
Hi All, Just sent out my free weekend update. Its been less than 3 weeks since the great Russian breakthrough at Pokrovsk (which was no breakthrough). And because it failed we have no reporting. Where are all the analyses once the Russians have failed. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
"Over the past two centuries, the powers that have emerged triumphant have been the ones that not only fought the enemy on the battlefield but also targeted its production and deployment systems—[...] as the United States and Britain did from the air against Nazi Germany."
If only they had been given ranged capabilities earlier...
Hi All, Just sent out this piece on a Ukrainian strategic air campaign against Russia. The Ukrainians seem to understand that targeting Russia strategically through oil and rail attacks is one of the best ways to weaken the Russian war machine. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
I dream of living of a world where RFK Jr plays no role of any kind in the decisions of how disease is treated in the USA. Is that too much to ask….
You can tell the Democrats want someone who will fight Trump as Trump has fought them. Much more effective than Schumer's strategy of keeping his head down. thehill.com/homenews/cam...
Hi All, a last minute change on the substack live 2day. Jade McGlynn can’t make it because of unforeseen circumstances, so I will be holding the event to discuss my just released book, War and Power-Who Wins Wars and Why, and anything else that takes your fancy. open.substack.com/live-stream/...
Really important piece by @mykolabielieskov.bsky.social about how Putin is trying to gain control of a vital part of Ukraine’s defenses through working with Trump. www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...
Military analysts who for years were downplaying the importance of Ukraine getting ranged weapons, saying they would be no game changers, would not make a major difference, etc--now are desperately trying to row back. Its a sign of just how dreadful the analytical community is.
Security guarranties is a fantasy. The size (5000 troops) is idiocy, American 'backstop' is rubbish all the while the Americans is siding with Russia, and the European stance that this will be implemented after a ceasefire which Moscow repeatedly has rejected, makes all these efforts pointless.
This is so funny. The US is already finding out how it goes when you try to interfere in a village where everyone knows each other, is related to each other, and no one has secrets. Namely that it doesn’t go very far. It was probably the Danish source’s second cousin who exposed the whole thing.
Remember when the GOP was the pro-fiscal responsibility, pro-Constitution, pro-rule of law, pro-states rights, pro-free trade, pro-free markets, anti-communist, anti-Russia, pro-strong US party? No, neither do I. But, that was their line for a long time and they've flipped on every element of it.
Sobering but important analysis by @mikecarpenter.bsky.social www.justsecurity.org/119673/ukrai...
Thanks Steve
Hello All--Its UK and European Publication day for War and Power: Who Wins Wars And Why (My latest book). I put together this short post about it--which has links to a free excerpt and a podcast about the book with Paul Krugman. Will do a substack live Monday. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Do you remember when Trump pretended to care about Russia bombarding and killing Ukrainian civilians? Seems like so long ago…. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Super…hope it’s a smooth listen
Wow, impressed you started listening already.
Good luck with that, hopefully Will be easy to find!
Thanks! Come with questions if you can
Think it’s already there!
Hello All--Its UK and European Publication day for War and Power: Who Wins Wars And Why (My latest book). I put together this short post about it--which has links to a free excerpt and a podcast about the book with Paul Krugman. Will do a substack live Monday. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
So today we had confirmation that the US is now actively trying to take territory from Denmark, a democratic ally in one case, and in another case give land from democratic Ukraine to dictatorial Russia.
"One of Trump’s main accomplishments is that he has incentivized unprecedented levels of cooperation among 🇺🇸 allies around the globe, who are trying to work around the 🇺🇸 itself. Instead of 51st 🇺🇸 state, 🇨🇦 would be welcome to become 28th EU member – if only it wasn’t located on the wrong continent."
Hi All, The Latest Europe Dispatch with @alanderminna.bsky.social just appeared. She looks at the increasingly important direct relationship between Canada and European states--should Canada join the EU? open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Hi All, Just sent this piece out on what a strategic air campaign for Ukraine might look like--what the priorities could be and what the Ukrainians would hope to achieve. It’s detailed--so this ended up as part 1--part 2 coming soon. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Trump is literally saying now that many Americans would like a dictator. www.barrons.com/news/trump-s...
Hi All, Just sent this piece out on what a strategic air campaign for Ukraine might look like--what the priorities could be and what the Ukrainians would hope to achieve. It’s detailed--so this ended up as part 1--part 2 coming soon. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Article worth reading by Alexander Motyl in The National Security Journal. It references the conversation I had with Paul Krugman about the weakness in military analysis today. nationalsecurityjournal.org/why-the-expe...
So Trump gives Putin a big win, a red carpet welcome to a summit in the USA, which has helped normalise US-Russian relations….and he says that was a big concession by Putin. Next, Putin makes another concession and agrees to no more sanctions on Russia…
"The United States is going to great lengths to antagonize its allies," @phillipspobrien.bsky.social told Paul Krugman . "I don't get it. None of this makes any sense to me."
⚡️Ukraine liberates 3 villages in Donetsk Oblast, military reports on Independence Day. Ukrainian troops have liberated the villages of Zelenyi Hai, Mykhailivka, and Volodymyrivka, Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on Aug. 24.
Stagflation in some form is coming. The trillion-dollar question is whether inflation becomes entrenched paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-econom...
Today I learned something new. The US Ambassador to Italy has decided to reside on a yacht rather than at the U.S. Ambassador's resident. As a result, the Italian coast guard patrols the area to ensure its security.
Keep on fighting, brave UKR. Never surrender, whether to Putin or Trump/Vance.
"What in particular the US is doing is keeping #Ukraine from attacking Russia with any US-produced #ATACMs (directly protecting the Russian war effort and damaging Ukraine’s)" "So #Trump has been arguing that Russia will win—and actively trying to make that happen." #Putin bsky.app/profile/phil...
Also, Ukrainians are realizing that they have been played by the western analytic community. And, the worst case yet of Trump Ukraine Derangement Syndrome.
First--its become clear that Trump has no intention of pressuring Putin to end the war and is even helping the Russian war effort by blocking Ukrainian strikes onto Russian soil with US weapons. Guess what--the war is going to continue.
Hi All, Happy Ukrainian Independence Day. As Ukraine's future will determine much of Europe's, all Europeans should be celebrating today and doing their damndest to see a free, democratic and strong Ukraine emerge from this war. For my weekend update, a few stories. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...